As someone who’s lived in Georgia and considers Tbilisi a second home, I harbor no sympathy toward the Russians or their bullying threats and revanchist attempts to swallow up a small and real democracy on their borders. I have also been humbled by the dedication and the professionalism of the Georgian forces, who are standing by us here in Iraq (where I am currently located.)
That said, this was a bone headed move by Sakaashvili. He had great success in reintegrating Adjara back into Georgia proper and seemed to believe he could catch the Russians unaware during the Olympic games and quickly reintegrate S. Ossetia as well. But Adjara and S. Ossetia are very different on account of:
Adjara was not contiguous to Russia and did not have Russian soldiers on their soil.
Adjara had not ethnically cleansed its Georgian population like Abkhazia and S. Ossetia, so there was significant local support for reintegration.
Sakaashvili has staked a lot of political capital on reintegrating the breakaway regions back into Georgia proper and this has pushed him to back the Russians into a corner. This is unfortunate, because the best thing Georgia could do would be to simply let these areas be absorbed into Russia.
Abkhazia and S. Ossetia have never truly been part of an independent Georgia. They have been de facto client states of Russia since 1992. Because of the ethnic cleansing in the 1990′s, their populations have few Georgians left. Yes, they are technically part of Georgia – but only on a map. They are not strategically important and have little wealth or developed areas. In fact, their reintegration into Georgia would likely depress Georgia’s fragile economy.
Georgia will never be part of NATO as long as it has these unresolved, potentially destabilizing secessionist problems. But if the Abkhaz and S. Ossetian problems were resolved, with full support from the US and other former eastern bloc nations, Georgia would have a good shot at becoming a member.
Is it fair? No. Is it right? No. But letting these areas be formally absorbed by Russia would be what’s best for Georgia.
If Georgia would let these areas go, they could then stabilize their country and become a partner in NATO – planting a free and democratic nation on Russia’s border that could never be threatened or bullied because of the alliance. THAT would be the Georgians’ best revenge.
Until then, we need to stand by our ally. True we do not have a formal security agreement, but this does not make them any less of an ally (we don’t have formal security agreements with Israel or Taiwan either.)
We need to demonstrate consistently to the world that we will support our friends (not sell them out) and punish our adversaries (not cut deals with them.)
American credibility is on the line.
