I regard Russia’s incursion into Georgian territory to be less interesting than Prime Minister Putin’s pretext, that of protecting Russian citizens in the “near abroad”. Many Russians live in Kazakhstan; if Russian citizenship were extended to Russian speakers in Kazakhstan, the Russian Federation would presumably have a pretext for invading Kazakhstan as well.

Latvia and Estonia are members of NATO with significant Russian minorities. Although the military pretext of Russophone irredentism is unlikely to be used against these Baltic republics any time soon, I think this pretext is unlikely to reassure Latvians and Estonians. Given how Russia has a vested interest in gaining a land bridge to the Kaliningrad pocket, which is presently surrounded by land by NATO, Russia’s future Baltic diplomacy will be interesting.