Well, too many comments to comment on…
So, this is just my point of view;
What is next to expect:
Russian troops will liberate the South Ossetian areas occupied by Georgians in their current offensive, and stop on the S. Ossetia borders. It does not make sense to go farther. Russia is a kind of a guarantor of safety for the Georgia’s separatist regions. They are supported by Russia and they count on her support and assistance. Russia warned many times that she would not tolerate attacks on theis regions by Georgia. After the Georgians are repulsed, the prewar status-quo restored, and credibility of Russia is proven, the war will calm down. Of course, Russians will try to destroy as much of Georgia military power, as possible, to reduce Georgian agressivness and readiness for future similar actions.
Political ramifications:
The most radical would be the following: South Ossetians may present themselves as “sufferers”, say “enough is enough”, and ask Russia to recognize their independence. And may get it. Then, they may have something like a referendum to join the North Ossetia, which is a part of the Russian Federation and the most pro-Russian region in the whole North Caucasus. So, Russians may get their foot on the South side of the Caucasian Range and just about 100 miles from the Georgian capital Tbilisi.
A good response for the inevitable Georgia entering NATO.
The softer outcome: The conflict returns to the uncertainty it was before. Georgia is not controlling the South Ossetia. South Ossetia is not recognized as an independent state. Russia has a lot of influence there and uses the unsolved conflict to harass Georgia and to prevent her entry to NATO.
Belmont Club
Russian Bear
2008-08-08 21:41:01








