Thanks for the mention, but you did not quite get my message (which might not have been clear in this post). The key element determining what comes next is choice. Harsh times require difficult trade-offs, and these decisions, made around the world, will collectively shape the new order.

Everyone gets a vote; not all votes carry equal weight.

We do not know how we — America — will react to what might be hard times ahead. We know even less what the rest of the world will do. At this stage we can only sketch out alternatives. Default is on the list; I agree with MacDonald that it is likely (but can take many different forms).