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By Richard Fernandez

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Trouble in the Caucasus

August 8, 2008 - 3:25 am - by Richard Fernandez
exhelodrvr
2008-08-08 19:41:00

As much as we dislike what the Russians are doing, you also have to be realistic about it.

We just don’t have the military to handle anything beyond relatively minor assistance to Georgia. If Russia calls our bluff, then we either have to back off, and really look stupid, or else open up another front. WHich, of course, would provide the ideal opportunity for Iran to do something.

And if we do something militarily against Russia, and they back down, it’s almost as bad. It would be huge PR defeat for us, based on how it would be protrayed, and would be used by Putin to drum up anti-Americanism and to solidify his own hold, based on the U.S. being an “external threat” to Mother Russia.

The best approach is diplomatic, quiet economic pressure, or threats thereof, with quiet economic carrots offered. And if Georgia and Russia are smart, they can both walk away looking good.