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By Richard Fernandez

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Trouble in the Caucasus

August 8, 2008 - 3:25 am - by Richard Fernandez
cedarford
2008-08-08 17:23:38

Wretchard, I hope I didn’t imply you advocated US intervention. That was some of your other commentators.

And I only commented on the Ossetians because it appears only once in a blue moon that you misread one of the factions in an international situation you write about. My general opinion of you and your work is high enough that I wish you had a slot in US foreign policy circles as a person of influence…

It is important though – when a more powerful nation takes on the role of “protector” of a smaller nation or people then finds itself unable to defend them against a enemy invader. Then it becomes not just a matter of helping an ally out, but amending for the hurt and humiliation of being a “protector” and failing in that role. A feeling that goes beyond just humiliation at not looking to defend an area in a sphere of interest, but something deeply personal.

The Chinese felt that “great pain and humiliation” as they watched colonial nations and the Jap militarists carve up tribute states. Britain did over “losing”
democratic Greece, which was a great historical affinity since Byron’s days and a nation Britain had bled to help out – to the Nazis.
In the case of the Americans, failing to protect the Philippines, the Marianas Islands from the Japs made the effort to drive the invader out deeply personal for them in a way that “liberating” France or Tunisia failed to capture the same emotion..

Russia, prostrate in the 90s, had to sit back and suffer as it’s long-time religious compatriate and friend Serbia was bombed out. It is a humiliation still burning the Russians. And now as they have risen up from squalor and crony capitalism and Yeltsin-levels of corruption – there is no way they will be disgraced by letting Georgian aggression stand against a people they protect.

And, for me personally, I think we have had some dangerous Republican right-wingers and Dem interventionists taking a little too much delight in poking and creating major provocations against the still very dangerous Bear (NATO to Russia’s borders all along the Euro front, placing missile defense so close to Russia when facilities in W Europe would have served the same defense need). This has gone on over the last 12 years just because they thought Russia was weak and they could get away with it.
No sooner had Russia allowed us in Central Asia through their territory to fight terrorists than the Russians found neocon hard-liners trying to make the Central Asian ex-Soviet states less “Russian-friendly” and route their oil and mineral assets away from Russian distribution right into Western hands. Which lead the Russians and Chinese to form the Shanghai Pact basically to prevent “johnny come lately” US grasping in Central Asia in spheres the Russians, Chinese, and Ottomans vied over for centuries.

We have compelling vital interests with Russia related to Iran, N Korea nukes, avoiding a ruiniously expensive 2nd Cold War with them, their mutual assistance on nuclear arms limitation, global bio/nuke/chem warfare proliferation limitations, and mutual interests in the war against radical Islam. Keeping Russia from becoming so alienated by the West’s treatment of it that it falls into a solid anti-West alliance with China.

And, of course, our interest in Russia not becoming opposed to E Europe becoming peaceful and prosperous post-communist nations and creating trouble there.

All of which argue against continually beating up Russia and meddling in it’s internal affairs or those small nations and ethnicities solidly in Russia’s sphere of interest for centuries..