How come west supports Georgia’s territorial integrity when they found it impossible to support the territorial integrity of Serbia before?
I don’t know what the diplomats will say (they don’t recognize South Ossetia as a legal matter) but as a practical matter it seems unlikely that Georgia can hold on to South Ossetia in the long run. In the South Ossetia must be allowed to pursue its own destiny without a) Georgia feeling it has been sold down the river; b) it becoming a forward base for Russia south of the Caucasus.
Personally, I think it would be unwise for the West to support a Georgian move to physically destroy the Ossetian independence movement. However, a substantial Russian intervention into South Ossetia would be destabilizing. As long as the two forces remain in contact, the prospect for escalation remains. Fortunately, as I keep pointing out, the Caucasus mountains will make an escalation a slow affair. The two sides can be disentangled by diplomacy if diplomacy can move faster than trucks over the mountains. However.
The only way this conflict can escalate quickly is air warfare. If you look a few comments up, you’ll see how happy I was that the Russian attacks on Georgian airfields appeared small. I said that nobody was playing for keeps. That’s good. But if the Russians, for whatever irrational reason, maybe in response to a humiliating reversal on the ground, decided to Groznyize Tblisi we would have a huge crisis. That’s the only way this can go bad in a few hours.
Whenever China threatens Taiwan the US sends out a carrier battle group. Why? Not to invade China but to assure Taiwan that it won’t be invaded. This calms them down and prevents the ally from doing something stupid. Now you want to assure the Georgians their core country will be preserved so that you can persuade them to enter into a negotiated settlement with the Ossetians. You don’t want Tblisi to compound the mistake it has already made. You don’t want Russia to miscalculate. That’s why at the very beginning of this comment thread, I mentioned it might be useful to send an air superiority force to the area but in the theater. Maybe Turkey, if Turkey will allow. This is like the carrier battle group. And it’s purpose is not to attack Russia but calm the Georgians down.
Again, this has all the hallmarks of a limited war. If we can keep it that way, then you might wind up with a demilitarized neutral South Ossetia on the south side of the Caucasus and a shrunken Georgia, but one which is a formal ally. The Russians can claim whatever credit and feel whatever pride they like.
