Russia’s push in south Ossetia may backfire if it actually puts Ossetian independence on the agenda. If a united Ossetia (including both north and south Ossetia) had its independence recognized by Russia and Georgia, the result could be Georgia in NATO, a strong Ossetian buffer state, and reduced Russian influence in the Caucasus. I don’t think for a second that Russia is serious about promoting Ossetian independence; it’s more interested in using ethnic rivalry to eventually annex parts of Georgian territory for itself.

I think any war between Russia and Georgia will be minor because it will be kept minor. Georgia will probably get resupplied in a manner that won’t get into the newspapers, just enough to keep Russia from winning but not enough to make the Georgian government get cocky and start thinking that it can call the tune for its western allies.

I think both NATO and Russia need to calm down and take a deep breath. Both sides need to realize that the very name “Ukraine” means “frontier” and exists as a demographic neutral zone between the Russian orbit and the West. Neither side can lay claim on Ukraine without polarizing it. The Baltic states are culturally western, while Belorus would probably be better off if it were annexed by the Russian Federation. Likewise, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan would also likely improve their human rights records if they became part of Russia again. (And that says something…)

The Caucasus is more complicated because it has the same basic problem as the Balkans — it is a mountainous region once run by the Ottoman Empire with more than its share of tiny warring nations with long memories. Given the disaster that happened the last time a Georgian controlled Russia, it is no less in Russia’s interest than our own that Russia should not annex Georgia.