Russia doesn’t have the economic self-sufficiency that is necessary for a prolonged engagement with the West. Even if the Bear pulls its oil off-market in retaliation, we and our allies have enough in our joint oil reserves to replace Russian supply for two years, at least.

That said, we need to be very deliberate with our moves should this thing get to a full-blown crisis. We’ve built up tons of levers and instruments over the years, giving us the potential to crank out a real diplomatic symphony. And since no ceiling exists to the stakes in this situation, we might be forced into an unexpected directorial debut.