Both my parents are still alive, and I have six siblings, of whom five are married. I am married and have a voting-age daughter. I have three nephews and nieces of voting age. Of this group of 19 people (including me), I am the only one who will vote Republican. All the other 18 will vote Democrat, no matter what is said by either Obama or McCain during now and the election. I know, because I argue with my family about politics every day by e-mail.

The Iraq War is the most important factor. I have supported the war consistently, but I recognize that the Bush Administration discredited itself horribly by overselling the WMD threat and by its interrogation experiments. It doesn’t matter what I think and argue about these issues. The revelation that the 2001 anthrax attacks were done by a US military researcher is yet another nail in the coffin of the public’s serious concern about WMD threats.

The other important factor is the general rationality of our country’s health-care system. The Republicans have held the Presidency for 20 of the last 28 years and have accomplished practically nothing to rationalize the system. McCain offers nothing new. For many voters, only a Democratic administration will engage this issue with the effort it deserves.

Eventually the health-care issue will raise to prominence in this election campaign, and I expect that this issue will overwhelm the current issue about gasoline prices. Most people are much more worried about medical expenses than they are worried about $4/gallon gasoline.