Economic prospects are bleak because the baby boom is moving into retirement, and the US Government will have to pay Social Security and Medicare benefits in quickly growing amounts. In these circumstances, I don’t see how we can either 1) cut taxes any farther or even retain taxes at their current level or 2) commit ourselves to huge new programs such as subsidized medical care for other age groups.

No such changes are possible fiscally or politically, because the baby-boom voters will oppose any rocking of the boat that might endanger their own not-so-distant benefits. The voters aged 50 and older comprise a huge group that exerts decisive influence because of its numbers, money, political energy and actual voting.

We can’t cut taxes any further, and we might have to raise them. We enjoyed much economic growth during the past quarter century because of the development of the electronics industry, but that development now has matured.

During the past quarter century, we also have reduced much of our production costs by relocating much or our business abroad, where costs are cheaper. The easiest such moves have been accomplished; now it is becoming more and more difficult.

The US economy will continue to innovate and prosper, but the growth rate will be steady and slow. The aging voters will insist on stability and security. In this situation, neither political party can promise significant changes, because there isn’t a voting majority that really wants any changes that might significantly affect the budget.