Maybe the Intrade predictions market for Obama shares are starting to catch up with or are starting to reflect a key point regarding those polls- that it involved LIKELY voters. Living in Boston for several years I have had the opportunity to listen to the talk show of a guy who was for many years a professional political consultant. One of the things he harps on is the matter of polling samples. Of particularly importance is whether it was a poll of “Americans”, i.e. basically whoever picked up the phone when the pollster called, of registered voters, of likely voters, and of highly likely voters. Apparently, to get the likely and highly likely voters, several questions are asked of the person being polled to determine their consistency in voting and how likely they are to vote again. These are the voters that count but polling them is much harder, i.e. it takes more time and money to get their responses because their are relatively fewer of them. Also, according to the local talk show host, they tend to be older, whiter, and more conservative than Americans in general. That McCain is leading among people most likely to vote is an encouraging sign for his campaign.