And the Dem desperation starts already.

*The close polling data will have the effect of lulling McCain into running a safe campaign*

Right. Sure. That’s why McCain immediately pounced with the attack ads this week.

* that tries to preserve what he has, hoping the independents will swing his way in October and put him over the top, while Obama can afford to take risk after risk because he’s young and he’ll be back*

Just like Al “The Real President” Gore and John F’n Kerry? Right. He loses this time, he’s done, unless he wants to be Governor of Illinois. He’s no Richard Nixon.

*But the race is really fifty different races,*

Except for all those states that Obama or McCain have no chance of winning. So it’s more like 15 different races.

* and three months is a lifetime in Presidential politics.*

The only correct thing you have typed.

* Anything can happen. There could be an “incident” with Iran.*

Such an incident would help McCain.

* Barack could go with Hillary after all and set up the “Dream Ticket”.*

A dream for Republicans. Obama is toast.