Under normal circumstances, China would be inclined to help Pakistan against India. These are not normal circumstances. Pakistan has acted in a manner that makes it difficult for China to intervene on Pakistan’s behalf even if China wanted to help.

What Moscow does in this crisis is important because China will watch Russia before it makes any move. China also seeks hegemony over Asia, and this “soft hegemony” is threatened if China intervenes against India. Besides, China doesn’t like getting manipulated into doing what it doesn’t want to do; China sees Pakistan as the horse and China as the rider, not the other way around.

The Pakistani press is acting in a defensive manner, whipping up “righteous indignation” that Pakistani intelligence could be accused of abetting the Mumbai atrocity. War fever is also gripping Pakistan, with the Taliban offering an unconditional cease-fire to the Pakistani government.

Pakistan is alone. Iran is unlikely to help Pakistan and the Arab states are too scared to fight. Pakistan faces the abyss, for it must either pursue an active civil war or face India’s wrath. One or the other. Either way, it won’t be pretty.