While I do believe that the nuclear wannabes will eventually be able to marry a ‘home-grown” bomb to a an effective home-grown delivery system, I doubt that any of them (I speak in particular of N. Korea and Iran) will have an effective combination anytime soon.

A radicalized Pakistan — on the other hand — is probably already capable of delivering one of its nukes on one of its missiles over an intermediate range (can’t reach Europe or Israel).

The fact that others (such as the grreat powers and Israel) have already created effective and succesful nuclear weapons and delivery systems doesn’t mean that it is now easy for others to do the same. Every new player — especially semi-isolated rogue states, have to at least partially reinvent the processes involved with both nuclear weapons production, and large missile development.

The whole point of what I said above — and on previous posts — is that we shouldn’t base our valid concerns about proliferation and hostile intentions and capabilities on overwrought and inflated notions of what would-be new players are, or will be, capable of doing. The reality is sobering enough without succumbing to hysteria.