vb said:

“I don’t really like this boots on the ground vs human int type of analysis.”

My thumbnail heuristic is a bit sloppy but it works: keep an eye on the MNF-I press releases to see how they’re identifying troop engagements. Conventional U.S. forces are identified as such, while the remainder are ID’d as “Coalition forces”.

Before and during the Surge there was a noticeable uptick in the number of press releases mentioning “Coalition forces” in things like snatch-and-grabs, Predator targeting, and similar activities.

When I see those phrases and contexts, it’s usually a good bet that Task Force 77 (or 121 or whatever they are these days) has been out hunting again.