Muslims, watching the events in Iraq, have just seen their own Stalingrad. Their best army has been surrounded, captured, annihilated. They are trying to comprehend the number of casualties and also the enormity of the lost position, resources and effort.

Now what? The Germans hoped that a new miracle weapon would stun the enemy, that Roosevelt would die and be replaced by a weak President and that the enemy Alliance would fall apart. These desparate hopes masked, however, a growing recognition among ordinary Germans that no matter how much they sacrificed and cooperated with each other, they would not be able to impact the future course of events. The spirit of practicality and initiative dissipated, replaced by a spirit of magical thinking and resignation.

And then suddenly came the era of Konrad Adenauer. Practicality reappeared immediately, and initiative soon afterwards. Bland, traditional, moderately religious Adenauer’s sudden appearance and lasting impact was predictable only in retrospect.

Hitler attacked Stalingrad in August 1942, and Adenauer was elected Chancellor in August 1949. A seven-year cycle. Bin Laden attacked the USA in September 2001, and the entire population of Iraq will vote for the first time in September 2008. Another seven-year cycle.