To a great extent, doctrine is driven by capabilities. As Al Qaeda became more capable of organizing attacks on New York City and Washington DC, its doctrine was adapted accordingly. The next development would have involved major attacks with anthrax and dirty nuclear bombs.

Since 9/11, however, Al Qaeda’s capabilities have been crippled. Since the Surge in Iraq, its capabilities have been crippled further.

It’s now a waste of time and effort for Al Qaeda’s strategic theorists to write justifications for massacres of random infidel civilians in the USA or Iraq. No can do.

Rather, we can expect to see a new cottage industry of justifications for targeted assassinations of Pakistani politicians.