I hope Old Blue can help answer your question, but my superficial impression is that, first of all, Iraqis aspired to be a modern nation; perhaps with Arab or Muslim flavor, but a nation nonetheless. I don’t know whether Al-Qaeda has forced the tribes to make that existential choice. I suspect that where the Al-Qaeda vision requires the tribes to give up their identity a zero-sum clash will ensue. But this goes to the heart of the larger question: Parts of Pakistan and Afghanistan are modern nations in name only. The question of strategy in Afghanistan/Pakistan is inextricably linked to what the place wants to become.