Funny, along with the I was almost right defence, is the knowledge that predictions even among experts “turn out to be more like Andy Warhol. Even the hedgehogs have their day in the sun.”

The implication is that “OH” is basing his policy predictions on the basis of his idology–a long term hedgehog trait. Which means short term he is going to have a higher rate of failed predictions. But “OH” acts like a fox, with a high calibration index, so that chances of his being caught at being definitively wrong are statistically nil.

Based on the predictive models out lined by Tetlock , we cannot say that “OH” is a fox, until we can rule out that he is not a hedgehog. Or we can agree to a third style, the Tasmanian Devil, which may be more like the charlatan or the hybrid depending on the need of the moment or even a fourth, the chameleon whose changes are not as speedy as taz but are gradual and nearly unnoticed.

So fluidity such as is there smells of gin.