Demosophist
2008-11-13 17:01:49
There are so many people predicting an horrendous future that it sort of takes the edge off the novelty. In fact, it looks a little like schadenfreude. Being gloomy may be justified, but the notion that one can realistically stretch that into a credible empirical prediction including dates and timelines is a little thin. Moreover, the general trend in terms of technology development as well as systems suggests that we’re very likely to see a “black swan” of the sort that renders the predictions (which are all based on the notion that the future will Zerox the past to a major extent) rather irrelevant.








