Belmont Club

By Richard Fernandez

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Obama and the Swan

July 19, 2008 - 8:00 pm - by Richard Fernandez
Captain Ramen
2008-07-21 11:11:20

I suggest reading The Wisdom of Crowds. One of the author’s theories is that experts, in isolation, do worse than average, e.g., most fund managers do worse than the market. A better way to predict the future is through futures markets, such as the Iowa Election Market or the Prediction Market on Strategy Page.

In fact, I suspect the strangling of the Policy Analysis Market had more to do with Senators being afraid of losing control than any ethical concerns.