Well, there used to be a saying among carnival mentalists/psychics: “You will never go broke predicting gloom and doom”. So notice that con artists take that to heart. … BUT: Pie in the Sky is the flip side of that coin. So the Gore-hogs, Buchanan-hogs, Paul-hogs set the stage for the cheerful-appearing Obama-hog to cash in on the opportunity to be that flip side.

I think Tetlock called it the attraction of “boom and gloom”. They are the guys who called out probabilities of one or zero. ‘It is going to happen’ or ‘no way’. At a speech before autoworkers, McCain told them times would be rough and that he didn’t know whether he could make them better. He might be right, but few will want to hear this. On the other hand Obama can get up and say he’ll repeal NAFTA while sending someone to the Canadians to tell them he won’t. But I’ll make the claim that sometimes even when people know they’re being lied to they’ll believe the lie that gives them hope as a opposed to the truth which leaves them in uncertainty.

The truth will make you free, but what people really want it assurance.