Shivermetimbers: We aren’t 1929. The government could do all kinds of things in those times because it was small, and didn’t have much to do with anyone. There was room to experiment, room to grow government, room to improve people’s lives.

There has been <6% unemployment in the US for years. What we saw this spring was called a recession. The economy grew. It felt slow like pulling off a freeway onto the off ramp feels slow.

I don’t see it. Obama has no room to do anything. If he raises taxes, it will entrench the recession. If he tries a major health system overhaul, he will break things for vast numbers of people. If he scales back the military, pulls out of the middle east, figures he can sweet talk some of these characters, he will face major wars that will make Iraq seem like a cake walk. If he loosens up on law enforcement, crime will shoot up.

There is no margin.

Whoever gets in this time around will be chased out in 2012. We are in for a very rough time, and no one will look very good. We are into a perfect storm where half a dozen trends are going to peak in the coming few years. Peak or explode.

I think Obama and congress will try all kinds of things. But almost everything is on a knife edge right now, and any consequences will come fast and hard.

As I said above, the only factor that really counts is if the republicans start shooting at themselves. We had a situation in Canada where a prime minister didn’t even bring a budget to parliament because there was no opposition. I don’t think the republicans will self destruct however. There is a very large population of people who have much to lose if the do, and they will prevent it.

Derek