Tetlock describe how pundits who find their seemingly impeccable failing can invoke the “I was almost right” defense, as in “if the coup aimed at Gorbachev had succeeded the Soviet Union would have survived”. I am sure there are any number of experts who are now arguing that “if Bush hadn’t been lucky enough to have Petraeus in command we would have been right about Iraq being a quagmire. And since nobody should count on being so lucky on average it was better to predict that Iraq would fail.” But this is counterfactual. It appears that the Surge has succeeded just as it appears the Soviet Union fell however differently we reasoned things out.