Belmont Club

By Richard Fernandez

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God’s green earth

October 19, 2008 - 9:27 pm - by Richard Fernandez
Leo Linbeck III
2008-10-19 22:47:22

fred,

Does it ever occur to these people that the hypothesis of man made global warming is junk science?

Frankly, no. No one they know or talk to or spend time with or read even considers the possibility. They are told there is scientific consensus on AGW, only nutjobs deny it, and they accept this judgment and move on. But then again, for the most part, that’s the way most of us go through life wrt most subjects. Bounded rationality, you know.

I, for one, welcome our new green overlords. Right now, being green is cheap and easy. Consumers are willing to pay a premium for “green” products, and they don’t even need to be green:

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1840562,00.html?imw=Y

When true costs start getting added to consumer prices – in the midst of a recession, no less – we’ll see more investigation into the science and, more importantly, its economic effect. And if they’re indeed wrong, we’ll likely see a complete repudiation of the scaremongers and hucksters. Heck, we might even see some more perp walks!

Personally, I have little doubt that humans have had an impact. We have dramatically increased CO2, and that has very likely led to warming. But I am not convinced that it is the source of most of the warming that occurred at the end of the 20th Century (or offset much the cooling this century). In fact, if I had to guess, the percentage impact of human activity on total warming has been in the low single digits. And if that’s true, cutting our CO2 by 50% won’t make a material impact, and therefore is a colossal waste of money.

But I maintain an open mind. If someone can produce real arguments that we’re the main source – and by real arguments, I’d be happy to start with a model that conforms with our known empirical data and laws of physics- I’d be willing to listen.

Until then, I’ll continue to try to live in a relatively frugal way, recycle (mainly ’cause it makes my wife happy), drive my hybrid car (’cause I’m cheap), and turn off the lights when they’re not being used.

But then I was doing all of this stuff before I learned I was destroying the planet…

L3