To address the comment above; while I agree that studying the Soviets will not unlock the way to go, the value is not in gaining perspective on how bad things can get. Not at all. The value is tactical.
Knowing the Soviet experience in whatever province and district in which you are operating tells you where the ambush sites are. It’s really that simple.
We are NOT reliving the Soviet experience. I met many mujahideen from that war who are sitting this one out or participating in the government.
We do not behave like the Soviets did. The Soviets were totally clueless counterinsurgents because they tried to suppress the insurgency with sheer force. While they killed hundreds of thousands, the insurgency could not be quashed by brute force. 90% of successful counterinsurgency warfare is non-kinetic.
To address the idea that things are on their way in that direction: I couldn’t disagree more thoroughly. With the exception of areas like Helmand, Paktika, Kunar, for example, where the insurgency has been under pressure and active without pause for years, a big part of the increase in violence is in areas that were formerly not active.
The reason for the new activity is the growing presence of IRoA agencies in areas that were previously ungoverned.
Since last August, there have been literally hundreds of engagements in the Tag Ab and Ala Say districts of Kapisa Province. Prior to that, clashes were relatively rare. The police hid in the district center and were afraid to venture out because the Taliban ruled these two districts.
Strategically important, Tag Ab is the closest staging point to Kabul for Taliban attacks. It is also a historic smuggling route for drugs and timber. It is a western terminus for an infiltration route leading from Pakistan through Nuristan and Laghman provinces.
Today the police patrol vigorously. Checkpoints dot the road that will probably be completely paved from the Provincial capitol all the way to Tag Ab by the end of the summer. There is a coalition firebase just outside the village of Tag Ab itself. Key Taliban leaders have been killed.
The Taliban and HiG are engaged in a desperate, losing struggle in Tag Ab.
That’s just one example.
I can tell you how much progress I saw made in 2007 in the various places all over southeast Afghanistan where I worked, but it would take hours and wear my fingers out.
Please do not be fooled by the MSM’s depiction. Don’t even listen to that nimrod retired general who saw nothing much of the country outside of Kabul except through windows and pronounces as if he actually knows what it meant. Now and for the foreseeable future is a turning point for Afghanistan. We can always go backwards, but much of the new violence is due to government encroachment into traditionally ungoverned areas.
The other part is due to a resurgent Taliban training in a safe haven, fueled with support from as far away as Saudi Arabia and individual citizens of many countries, including ours.
