After the fall of Saddam few expected how long and difficult Iraq would become. The opposite will happen here. The victory will be short and decisive. The duck has no stomach for a real fight and few loyal supporters. His self preservation will outweigh his craziness and sober him quickly. There is no Shia/Sunni divide, there is no major al queda presence, there will be no foreign fighters. This is the Bush doctrine steamrolling Obama although dear leader will benefit greatly from its success.

Of course it will still end poorly with an anti US regime.

I think Sarkozy is having his Bush moment and the fact that America is not leading the fight is what throws off so many.