300 million, old man. – Bob Murphy

Not all of that 300M are people generating over a billion transactions among themselves every day unless the kids are putting something extra in that lemonade.

In the spirit of “this too shall pass” consider the demographic in the 50-60 yr old category – the hardest hit.

Say you have a cool $1M in savings – down 20% in 2008 to $800,000.

Assume a future growth rate of 8% less 4% inflation or 5%. That will take 5 years to recover – on top of one to two years to pull out of the recession – say 7 years.

Case 1: If you’ve been lucky and/or responsible, that’s a paper money recovery.

Case 2: If it’s principle, that’s a loss of real money that will take around a decade to recover – no growth – just recovery.

How many 50-60 yr olds in this country? Beats me. It’s a demographic that’s skewed to the older – say 20% – that’s 60 million people.

How many in the Case 2 category? Beats me – say a third – that’s 20 million people.