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By Richard Fernandez

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On the Pakistani border

July 13, 2008 - 2:56 pm - by Richard Fernandez
Old Blue
2008-07-14 09:36:24

The initial report that I read was that the Americans were killed in an ambush returning from a patrol and that the attack on the COP came the following early morning. It was described as a complex ambush.

Current reports tie the deaths to the attack on the COP (Combat OutPost.) This is where the MSM news becomes confusing. The AP reporter whose story appears even in “Stars and Stripes,” Jason Straziuso, seems to report accounts given by ACM sources without any skepticism.

He also uses Afghan stringers. Where did he get those pictures of the Taliban executing women? How can an AP photographer hang out with the Taliban without fear? Hey, it’s neat to see the Taliban from the inside while they’re performing heinous acts and pretending to have execution authority, but why aren’t we asking how this guy can hang with the Taliban? And how does Straziuso know this guy?

This is where ACM/Taliban information operations begin to make ground. Straziuso is now reporting the alleged “wedding party bombing” as a fact of a week gone by. This is not the case. I contend that this is an IO victory on the part of the enemy at this point. They have fed a lie to the media which has been repeated often enough to become accepted.

And our diligent AP stringer-using, Taliban picture-getting reporter is right there with it. Hmmmm. He does have his name in every major paper in the US, though.

The first account, of the casualties being the result of a complex ambush, is more likely true. Any accounts beyond that did not come from NATO/ISAF, who tend to be more close-mouthed about things due operational concerns and a high degree of distrust of the press.

Nuristan is the best ambush country that I’ve ever seen. The point was made above that sometimes the other guy is good. This may just be the case. Nuristan and Kunar are areas with easy access to the Pak border, and where you are mostly likely to run into people who have the benefit of training.

They are more likely to know how to shoot, move, communicate, and have well-developed tactics. There are quite often foreign fighters in these areas as well.

One of the “rules” of warfare is “never come back the same way you went out.” This is not possible in Nuristan, or in most places in Afghanistan. This fact made the ambush way too easy to set.

Do not make assumptions based on a map analysis of the terrain that the position chosen was a bad one, and do not forget to factor in the slant ranges involved from the surrounding terrain. The map analysis referenced above gave a straight line range of 800 meters. RPG’s self-detonate at approximately 900 meters. A slight miscalculation on the homespun analysis can easily be 100-plus meters on the ground, making that self-destruct range more of a factor. You’re working too hard with imprecise materials.

The 173rd are not amateurs, and they have been in theater for a long time. There are no lazy soldiers in that area, so don’t make that assumption, either. Afghanistan is a very hard place to fight, and very dangerous.

It is certainly frustrating, but until those who are there eventually share their stories, we are being fed the only information that is available. This information is coming from opposition sources at this time, who are claiming to have overrun the site.

I did not ever, from my personal involvement in events that were reported by NATO/ISAF/US sources, find them to be lying. They did, perhaps, “dumb things down” a bit in order to not become too detailed, but they did not deliberately conceal facts to make anything appear to be more advantageous than it was.

Remember also that the Army/NATO/ISAF have tremendous sensitivity to the casualty notification process being given time to work. Patience, Prudence.

All US non-official information systems and phones in the entire area will be blacked-out until the last family is notified and that information makes its way back to the 173rd. In a situation like this, ISAF becomes a black hole of information. NOTHING gets out, certainly not to the AP.

The loss of 9 soldiers at one fell swoop is certainly a high loss of life, especially in an area of small unit actions.

As for the comments of NahnCee, my personal experience was working with the ANP, the least well-trained and reliable troops on the IRoA side of the house. We conducted many operations in conjunction with the ANA under Army, Marine and French mentorship. I NEVER saw or heard of any instances of Afghan soldiers shooting their American or French counterparts.

My Afghan counterparts saved my life and kept me alive. It would have been easy for them to kill me or sell me down the river in the Tag Ab Valley or even in Nuristan. It seemed that the thought never occured to them. I categorically reject that comment.

More likely was that the ISAF (American) troops were in the lead on the movement and part of the Afghan forces was not in the kill zone, explaining the less severe casualties. Once CAS was on station, or even near station, or artillery began to impact in the area, the Taliban would break contact. Remember, they were planning the attack on the COP itself and needed to protect their force.

It is hard to be patient, and the urge is to jump on the story and analyze it; but the information that is given is inaccurate and incomplete. I may (say again, MAY) be wrong, but I contend that:

1) The “wedding party” bombed in that same area last week was not a wedding party but a good kill on a mortar team and their support. Same for the “wedding party” southeast of Jalalabad in Deh Bala.

2) The new COP is drawing fire because they are a)small and b)interfering with an infiltration route.

3) The American casualties were the result of a well-executed complex ambush in great ambush terrain. It’s easy to be good in that kind of terrain. It’s the scariest ambush country I’ve ever seen.

4) The COP is not ill-situated, and was at no time overrun. It is not, however, invulnerable.

5) While studying the Soviet experience does not ensure success, it is ignored at your own peril. The Soviets are one of the few countries that are worse counterinsurgents than we are, but the Afghans never reinvent the wheel.

Great point about “if it bleeds, it leads,” but this is another good example of our press contributing to the effectiveness of enemy IO. Afghanistan has always been there, but for several years was overlooked in the press. Last year began to change that, and this year with Iraq a little calmer, Afghanistan is getting some attention again. The MSM, again, is reporting Taliban IO without question. Please keep that in mind as you analyze these events.