7.) the high point of islam in the 1500’s was the siege of vienna in 1532. that’s still another 25 years away. but islam is an old empire religion. and we are moving from old empire to new empire. (I’m defining here empire in the way churchill defined it–as “empires of the future will be empires of the mind”..)Then as now, Islam was a consumer of science and technology and not a producer.
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there is a caveat here. the cost of generating solar power is now collapsing faster than computing power. the best companies now like nano solar are producing solar power at par with coal in a couple years their costs will be half to a quarter that of coal. this makes deserts everywhere one huge power center. that bodes well for north africa and the middle east.

the other thing happening now but less publicized is that the slow fall of water desalination and transport is accelerating. I blog on the latest here

http://nick2.wordpress.com/

this also bodes well for desert countries.
basically starting in 10-15 years I think the press of populations will reverse course because of technological change.