We are 500 years roughly from the discovery of the new world.
Just as that age was marked by a large technological revolution including the invention of the printing press-so also this one is marked by a large technological revolution that includes the invention of the internet. That age was marked by the shift from the Ptolemaic cosmology to the Copernican cosmology. This age too is marked by large paradigm shifts in the scientific world view of the cosmos. 500 years ago Islam came to its greatest expansion into Europe at the gates of Vienna. We are in a similar moslem expansion today that is still a few decades from cresting.(imho the crest will happen at the same time that the west becomes energy independent–and likely will coincide with a reformation.) 500 years ago Europe was wrapped in catholic indulgences which forced people to pay for the sins of their ancestors. A similar effect–but different ideology– is at work today where whites are required to pay for the sins of the ancestors.
In short we are at the very end of one great age and at the very beginning of another great age. At this point we are all about setting initial conditions so as to shape the trajectory of the coming age.
It may well take 500 years to develop the science to break out of the solar system but maybe it will be sooner. Accelerating the speed of computers imho has the effect of also collapsing distances and time. So the steadily accelerating speed of computers is virtually collapsing the distances to the stars. Now I have said more than I understand. For example, you can say that observing that there is water on the moon and mars makes it more likely that people will go to the moon and mars because water makes it more feasible to do so–but its a stretch to say that discovering water on the moon or mars collapses the distance and time to the moon and mars–except in the sense that it sharpens the planning for such ventures. Similarly for the stars. There has been in recent years an explosion in the number of extraterrestrial planets discovered. That number is expected to increase exponentially in the next decade or so. Does observing the stars actually collapse the distance and time that it will take to reach them. hmm ok the answer here is no. rather observing them reflects accelerating capability and planning.
In planning or speculating on the future imho its best to follow the water.
imho the cost desalination and transport in the next ten years will cause the worlds deserts to be turned green for agriculture and double the size of the habitable planet. this work will in turn create the capital and technology to make the next great leap into space following the water–in the second half of the 21st century.
