This is perhaps the grossest error of those who make arguments that the new multilateral threats are “undeterrable” because the new regional actors are not likely to be rational.
All rationality (or not) aside, all deterrence aside, there is little further trouble coming from a plain of hot, smoking glass. This is the bottom line in terms of all “strategic inferiors”. Even the slightest malicious act may be your last.
It may be an exaggeration to claim that a missile defense will have the effect of disarming the Kremlin of any viable military response between issuing a diplomatic protest and starting Armaggedon but it is quite clear it threatens to invalidate a large range of the “full spectrum” responses now available to the Russians.
One might expect Russia to take pause at the notion of building an even larger nuclear arsenal. Russia’s frail military infrastructure nowhere near adequately guarantees that one of their own devices might not be stolen and used against them.
Narrowing what would otherwise be a “full spectrum” of response may well be one of the best messages to send the Russians. Either they learn to be a productive member of the world community or find that their insufficient military is nothing more than a liability.
With a half dozen missiles at the ready the Ayatollahs could be reasonably sure that, short of an actual nuclear attack on an American city, Washington might not dare take disproportionate action. In other words, the uncertainty which forms the kernel of American deterrence would be effectively undermined.
Which neatly summarizes why Iran’s nuclear aspirations must be strangled in the cradle.
Deterrence is above all a psychological game. The Essentials of Post-Cold War Deterrence reminds us that the vast expenditures of the Cold War — and today — go towards the purchase of uncertainty in the enemy’s mind.
Yet one more reason why America’s interests in fighting global terrorism might have been better served by a display of massively disproportionate retaliation much earlir in our efforts to militarily engage Islam. Nothing quite rattles an enemy’s resolve like having the moldering corpse of a confederate in the same room with them.
ajacksonian:: The strongest weapon against Iran is undermining their ideology by demonstrating it to be ineffective in dealing with everyday life and showing how personal liberty can lead to a better life with freedom.
Now when I start seeing educational institutions, religious institutions willing to teach secualr subjects, and US foreign policy based on those things, that will make an extremely credible threat in the one place that will harm Iran the most: Iraq.
The exact problem being that the American government’s wholesale subscription to Multiculturalism has badly choked the exact mission you suggest. That shari’a law once again reigns in Afghanistan and Iraq has defeated a huge number of the valid objectives you state. Critical components of a health society like transparency, juridical integrity and benevolent law enforcement all suffer under the corrupt superstructure of shari’a law.
RWE: I think we now have an entire class of people who think that talking is the answer to everything.
Just as with how when your only toll is a hammer everything starts looking like a nail: All the liberals have is dialogue, so that everything appears to them as being negotiable. The delusional part is when they try to negotiate with Islam, whose objectives are non-negotiable. This is root and branch of the total psychological disconnect by the Left with respect to fighting Islam and terrorism.
John Samford: Stain was the most rational leader of the 20th century. I offer as evidence his longevity as the ruler of the Largest nation of the 20th century.
Anyone that doubts how rational Stalin was is using the wrong metric.
If you consider the murder of countless innocent people, incessant paranoia driven purges and imposed starvation to be “rational” forms of administration, then I suppose you could call Stalin rational. The man was a cold-blooded psychopath and little else. Your metrics are the ones that need retooling.
dan: By the way, since the topic of Russia has been raised, I wish we could get Wretchard or some other reputable commentator to comment on Yuri Bezmenov’s video.
I heartily second that motion. For those who are still unfamiliar with this important clip, here is a link to Yuri Bezmenov’s video.
A general discussion of The Communist Agenda and its far reaching implications with respect to America’s current political turmoil would go a long way towards clarifying the pervasive murk that roils our country’s stability.
