Cedarford ignores the elephant in the room: Beslan.
Pre-Beslan, Russia cooperated with the US because we both had the same enemy, Islamic Jihad. Afterwards, including the bombing of airliners the same day, Putin addressed the nation saying the weak get beaten and Russia was weak.
Two things were done to address this weakness. FIRST: Russia made deals with Iran (who were hostile from the beginning to even removing their enemy the Taliban) to support their nuclear ambitions, in exchange for Iran cutting off and betraying Chechen jihadis, and then secondarily AQ. Second was crushing Chechnya with proxies and rebuilding the Russian military.
The Color revolutions did not help things, but the real issue was Russia’s weakness requiring a deal, temporary, but a deal nevertheless, with Jihad in Tehran and Pakistan. Russia overtly hopes that the US is nuked by Pakistani or Iranian nukes so they are the Last Man Standing.
Next, Cedarford ignores the internal realities of Iran, and Pakistan. Iran’s path to power since 1979 has been clear: each faction can win and liquidate (literally) the other rival factions if it can launch hostilities with the US and paint rivals as stooges of the US. There is therefore no ability whatsoever to reach any “deal” because there is not a strong central authority to create one. Even Khameni has rivals, and he’s the Supreme Imam. There was no lasting deal with Iran because of this internal power dynamic.
Wrt Pakistan, it has 100 nukes. It is fracturing since it is an agglomeration of tribes and clans and ethnicities that all hate each other, and use Islam as both glue and crowbar to bind and split apart groups.
ONCE PAKISTAN WENT NUCLEAR IN 1998, IT WAS INEVITABLE THAT US CITIES WOULD DIE.
Because there is no central authority in Pakistan either. Non-coms care more about their tribes, clans, and family ties, since that’s all they have in the chaos of Pakistan, than law and chain of command. If cousin Hamid pays enough and has the family demand enough, cousin Rashid will give him a nuke or two. Eventually, this will happen. Since Pakistan is a set of tribes with a flag. And nukes.
In that sense, arguing about Pakistan and Afghanistan is pointless. In order for US cities to be safe, pretty much EVERY tribe down to local AQ-affiliated members, or Taliban members, must feel that their entire clan, tribe, and existence will be wiped out if NYC dies. Obviously, this is not the case, as we argue here if Bush has the actual authority to arrest AQ members in the US.
It’s obvious — a US city will die, Dem leadership will dither and grovel, because they fear fighting back will marginalize their power (it will). Another city will die and the US will go into survival mode and wipe out pretty much everyone in Pakistan, and perhaps also Iran. A tragedy. Avoidable but for craven political leadership more interested in partisan advantage than country.
This is not anything new btw. I’ve read predictions of this going back to 1991-2 in the LA Times.
But to be clear. There is no “deal” to be made with anyone. Since it is local tribal leaders who will decide if NYC lives or dies another day. Or various Iranian factions, for that matter. It’s as if the Plains Indians had nukes, and Crazy Horse could “borrow” one if he’s persuasive enough.
