Coyotl,

Your Shia = islamism formula is a bit simplistic.

The “one man, one vote, one time” problem is very real. There is a great danger of authoritarians/totalitarians/extremists gaining power in immature democracies, cf. Russia, Venezuela, Algeria, Zimbabwe, etc, etc. But, I think that Iraq is a special case.

Wretchard’s reference to the triangle is especially apt when the tripartite nature of Iraq is taken into consideration. The Shia do form a bare majority of the population, but the Kurds and Sunnis constitute a considerable counterweight. The Shia themselves are not monolithic and there are no few secularists in their number. It is nearly impossible for any one party to obtain a dominant position.

Could a Hezbollah-like movement develop in Iraq? Al Sadr certainly tried and has apparently failed. The essence of an organization like that is resistance. Hezbollah thrived because of the presence of Israel. Does Iran have pan Shia ambitions? Certainly. But, the Arab Shia of Iraq don’t necessarily like or respect their Persian coreligionists. Most consider Najaf and Karbala to be senior to Qom in scholarship and authority.

As Iraq develops economically it will become very competitive to Iran. Blessed with both oil and two rivers, a peaceful Iraq will be the economic center of gravity of the Middle East. Iran’s moment to dominate Iraq is nearly past and their is danger of the tidal forces reversing.

I think that even a sketchy Dawa government in Iraq is enormously preferable to the previous Baath regime. Iraq may not be our ally, but, with a little oversight, Iraq is unlikely to require sanctions, no fly zones and armed interventions in the near future.