Wow. Tons of information and hypothesis. Lots of differing world views and views of the opium problem. How did the Taliban stop opium production when they were in power? The made an edict and ruthlessly enforced it. Period. People died, and others were afraid.
The Taliban has not divorced itself from the opium poppy; they are not clean. The people know it. Is this a problem for public relations? Sure. Do the Talibs care? Not so much. They will, if they succeed in overthrowing the IRoA, ban opium once again. In the meantime, they have the loyalty of those who grow it, move it, and protect it. It is a marriage of convenience, but they do not try very hard to deny the fact of their involvement. They simply point to a fatwa saying that it’s okay as long as the money goes to fight infidel occupiers, and that’s good enough for most.
I was there last year when the Presidential Decree was delivered to the provincial governors and they pushed it down to the district subgovernors; if you grow poppy, we will throw you in jail and confiscate your land.
The problem? Enforcement. What’s the problem with enforcement? Probably corruption in the judicial system.
Bribes.
When you figure out how much money the Taliban has available, figure in a cut for the local government officials, be they police or judicial or executive. Trust me, it’s there.
I’ve never seen more entrepreneurial people than Afghans. Money talks, goat sh1t walks. We were prevented from entering the Tag Ab Valley (by Presidential Decree) until the opium harvest was over. Why? I don’t know.
As far as Pakistan, I find it truly amusing that the same folks who were pressing for a “diplomatic solution” in Iraq have not exhausted all of those possibilities in Pakistan. Pakistan tolerated a certain amount of cross-border activity for quite some time, quietly sweeping it under the rug. Now, with quasi-presidential policies being broadcast by candidates about blatantly violating Pakistani territorial integrity, they must confront the threat publicly to avoid domestic problems.
And the border problems are nothing new. Last year there were several fights, including an artillery duel between Pakistanis and Afghans at the border. Troops on both sides died, and the American advisors to both the border police and the ANA were right in the thick of it. I listened to it on the radio as it occurred. I knew people who were involved.
Also last year an American Major died in Pakistan while leaving a Shura to discuss border issues. He was ambushed at the LZ as he was going to leave. The Pakistani issue has always existed, but nobody was paying attention.
Why was Afghanistan being ignored? It’s a lot more simple than some stuff about strategic importance.
Public interest.
Iraq was the hot potato. Iraq was the bitching point between the great American antagonists; Democratic leadership crying foul and Republican leadership having no choice but to make a success out of a difficult situation.
MainStream Media, the ever present circus ringmaster, kept public attention rooted on the spectacle of the bitching point.
It is actually in the Democrats best interest if Iraq does become a failure. It would prove them right, and there is always plausible deniability if their guy gets elected… he can simply claim that it was by its nature unwinnable and declare himself a soothsayer of Nostradamian proportions for having foreseen it.
We should all be so lucky in our lives as to be given the opportunity to prove ourselves prescient by gloriously failing. So, in this respect, McCain is absolutely correct; Obama WOULD absolutely happily lose a war to win an election. It is practically a requirement.
Remember this; all those who are currently in that nearly 70% who now supposedly oppose our continued presence in Iraq also get to prove themselves prescient as well. Note that nearly 50% were not in that 30% who originally either opposed or did not otherwise overwhelmingly supported the overthrow by force of Saddam Hussein.
Of course, according to almost all of them now, they certainly were part of that minority. They had to be to now prove themselves prescient also. Their prescience proves their intellectual primacy and the criminal stupidity of their political foes.
The current situation in Afghanistan only differs from three and four years ago in that the Pakistanis have shown a remarkable unwillingness to actually rule their own northwest territories and the fact that Taliban human resources being developed over the past few years are beginning to become available. The territorial issues are really nothing new. Other than the change of government, the really new development is the public focus on Pakistan and the widely published disrespect for Pakistani territorial integrity.
There is one other thing; superficial media coverage. Afghanistan is now being discussed and viewed on the MSM. Suddenly everyone is an Afghan analyst and an armchair expert on Pathan history, behavior, and ambitions. Everyone is a thoroughly schooled expert on how the Russians behaved and everyone has an expert opinion on how we should pursue our national interests in Central Asia. It’s an American mental sport.
Media spotlight: Poof!: Pundits.
Look, folks; this sh1t is nothing new. From my personal observations on the ground in a number of areas in the 201st Corps area, we ARE winning… slowly. That’s the nature of counterinsurgency. The most accurate assessment I’ve seen today is that the Afghan economy needs to be grown. A LOT.
Oh, to the biodiesel counternarcotics agent; wonderful idea. Were you aware that Afghanistan actually has oil? Were you aware that Afghanistan has significant natural gas reserves? Apparently not. Biodiesel from opium sounds fabulous. Not gonna work.
Real oil? Hmmmm… Real natural gas? Hmmmm…
How ’bout some help getting it out of the freakin’ ground? Create some jobs. It’s as hard to get an Afghan with a day job to run around at night planting IED’s as it is for a schlep to get his employed buddies out for a Tuesday late-nighter at the strip joint.
Keep the politics local, folks. Keep it local. One district at a time, one valley at a time. Make the Taliban irrelevant. Take their issues and make them your own. Coopt their message and make Osama irrelevant.
The worst thing that could happen to Afghanistan is if we actually killed Osama.
