Joshua @ 25:

“The possibility of Texas seceding changes that game completely. Now any state that borders Texas that is inclined to secede may do so without committing economic suicide even if it is landlocked, because Texas, of course, is not.”

The more likely trigger mechanism for break up of the US is a failed constitutional convention. Eventually the Liberal Elite will overreach itself and the states will call for a constitutional convention. Later during the constitutional convention someone will point out that the US government is in debt for an amount that can not possibly be repaid but that debt goes away if the United States ceases to exist. After reaching that conclusion, the convention is ended with nothing voted out, the states go their separate ways and start printing their own money.