cjm@13,

The only thing about this era that is similar to the Carter era is the various qualities of the occupant of the White House. Everything else is drastically different.

To begin with, our enemies are not nearly so well-defined. Who can really say whether China is an ally or an enemy? Intelligent arguments can be made both ways…though if you listen to our diplomats they’re our tightest friend. Same thing with most of the middle east and South America, as well as elsewhere.

Our enemies are also much more numerous, if also much smaller and less powerful. Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, Cuba, and terrorist organizations whose number exceeds that of the stars in the Milky Way.

Combine that last with the idea that “suitcase nukes” could be passed to any one of them, and after the detonation inside our borders we might or might not be able to identify the provenance of the weapon, but would almost certainly never know who was really responsible.

So much for the geopolitical setup. Add to that the insane debt and yearly deficits we’re looking at. The banks seem to have decided that laws don’t apply to them. The SEC just was exempted from FOIA requests in the recent financial “reform” law. The derivative market is a powder keg waiting for a match. On and on and on. We’re sitting on a financial time bomb, and nobody knows what the clock on it reads.

Add to all that the fact that, as I see it, our society and culture are at an all-time low of readiness for real hard times. Only the older among us (significantly older than me, and I’m middle-aged) recall a time when things were really hard. Millions of us have no skills besides filing paperwork or diddling with Microsoft Word or juggling bank accounts or writing reports or other things that, when you get right down to it, don’t add a whole lot of value anywhere that’s crucial. During the last depression, nearly everybody knew how to farm and fix their own clothes and build things and so forth. How many do today? I know many who can that are in their 70s or older. I don’t think I know more than one or two that can do those kinds of things that are younger than 30.

And we live in a culture where people riot when their team hosts a championship game, WHETHER THEY WIN OR LOSE. They riot if they see one instance of cops beating up a black man. They are accustomed to being backstopped by social security, unemployment insurance, WIC, food stamps, heating assistance and a galaxy of other federal, state and local programs. How are these same welfare-state addicted people going to react when something happens (like huge cuts in social security or other programs, big hikes in their taxes, or whatever) that actually materially affects them in a negative way?

And the kicker: who is the next Ronald Reagan? I look at the Republicans today and I can’t find anybody that looks significantly different from the pack. Even if you include the Dems in “the pack”.

Yes, we’re seeing a situation that I don’t recall ever seeing before, either personally or in a history book. It feels to me like we’re currently in a holding pattern, while the geniuses behind the curtain are jockeying to see if they can find a solution. I think there are probably people in a position to know who are panicking right now and ticking through their last options before they throw in the towel and leave us to our own devices.

I hope I’m wrong, but fear I’m not. I think we have as little as a few months left before big changes come…but they’ve fooled me several times up to this point, so maybe they’ll keep all the balls in the air for another 3 or 5 years. I have a hard time seeing it go longer than that without going kablooey.

Call me chicken little all you want…I hope you’re right. I hope Ronny Reagan II rides to the rescue in the nick of time, and I volunteer to be the first to apologize for my lack of faith when that happens.