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By Richard Fernandez

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When in doubt, don’t

July 8, 2008 - 9:47 pm - by Richard Fernandez
Al
2008-07-09 10:30:44

This has the effect of threatening a vastly disproportionate response towards any attempts at aggression by strategic inferiors. While a proportionate response is not ruled out, neither — and this is the essential point — is a wholly disproportionate one. Under such a doctrine a missile defense capability would play a very important role: it would greatly increase the potential lopsidedness of the exchange.

This goes to the heart of the matter. Despite all the rhetorics about the missile installations being purely defensive, Russia has a legitimate reason to worry. Keep in mind that the “disproportionate response” doesn’t have to be caused by Russia actually invading anyone. As we’ve seen in Yugoslavia, it may be triggered by the wholly internal “human rights violation.” The actual violations aren’t even required, it’s enough to wage a prolonged PR campaign to that effect. (One could argue that such campaign is already under way.)

This looks very worrisome from the Russian point of view, but all expression Russian concerns fall on deaf ears. Basically, Russia is saying that they had exhaused all the diplomatic means in trying to resolve this, so now they have no choice but to consider other options. Of course, this is seen as yet another example of Moscow’s aggressiveness.