Dave: Let me take these sequentially:

“I would guesstimate that the tribal areas of the Pakistan/Afghanistan borders will require garrissoning/patrolling for a generation or more.”

You are probably correct. The goal is to get the Afghan government to be capable of and motivated to take care of their own borders.

“When producing for a living starts better than raiding for a living, things will start to change. And when the latter produces nothing but increased poverty, change fast.”

Where is this raiding economy? Where did people get the idea that Afghans are like Tuskan raiders from Star Wars? That is not anything like what I saw at all. If it exists, it exists in a part of Afghanistan that I didn’t see. The Kuchis are not even raiders. They are nomads who primarily herd livestock.

“At any rate, Afghanistan can no longer be used
as a “privileged sanctuary” and staging area
for organized terrorist groups. That is good enough for me. To carry my above analogy a step farther, the equivalent of Commancheros
can no longer operate there in the unmolested fashion they must have.”

You are right about the first part, but the second part should be clarified; the “commancheros” are the ACM groups like the Taliban, the HiG, and Jaish. Typical Afghans do not behave like commancheros at all. Only the ACM skulk around, sometimes staying in their home range, sometimes they would rely on the hospitality of the locals for their shelter and food. The strictly criminal elements didn’t seem to operate that way much, because their support from the people would have to be strictly through intimidation. They moved from one criminal cell to another, rather than just showing up somewhere and asking/demanding food and/or shelter.