The Bradley effect is likely much much higher. Seniors don’t like Obama one bit. They are very sensitive to crime, and Obama being a Black Nationalist has alienated their votes. They will turn out for McCain in a big way, and Seniors vote 25% more than the youth vote, whom they outnumber by 8 million.

Next, Obama has provided rich fodder for Reps by saying he WANTS high gas prices, just not so quickly. And that he WANTS high electricity prices, just not so quickly. To stop Global Warming. Already McCain is running to the populist right on that — drilling, gas tax holiday (Obama against) and so on. Every time motorists fill up, they are reminded who wants to lower their tax bill that day and who wants it higher.

The polls are not very accurate at this point. Survey methodologies are suspect, Obama is not peaking but sliding downwards, all self-inflicted btw, and ran too hard, too left, too long to switch to the center. His “Mac” like cultists turn people off the way smug Apple ads did hard-pressed consumers.

McCain would be underwater against Hillary, or Webb, or any other centrist Dem. The problem with Dems is they moved so hard left socially and politically that their appeal is only to the young, Blacks, and yuppies. As Begala put it, “College kids, yuppies, and Blacks.” That won’t get it done. Even Kerry found that out against a basically politically dead GWB.