Every candidate has strengths and weaknesses, but since the Democrats didn’t have a ready estimate of Palin because McCain played the list of his veep choices so close to his chest they didn’t know what to expect. In the brief period since McCain announced the identity of his running mate, the Democrats have naturally been trying to make up their intel deficit and understandably focused on Palin’s wearknesses, glomming in on the superficial ones, like her daughter’s pregnancy. But the real danger lay in the ignorance of her strengths. In the absence of a real intel estimate, many pundits naturally assumed she was stupid and laid their plans accordingly. Tonight’s speech demonstrated how politically expensive underestimating Palin could be.
In retrospect, Obama may have miscalculated by selecting Biden. His advisers may have assumed that McCain was going to select another experienced white man and by choosing Biden, Obama was going to going to have an experienced white man of his own to set against his projected opponent. This would leave BHO the charismatic black man free to go one on one with the old war hero. Unfortunately McCain set up an asymmetric matchup with Biden; a woman candidate who was moreover free to fire over Biden on BHO himself. To use the metaphor of the Battle of the Denmark Straits, it was almost as if the British, expecting the Bismarck and Prince Eugen to emerge from the mists, found that the Bismarck and the Tirpitz had showed up instead.
Doubtless the Democrats will fix their intel deficit as quickly as private investigators and political operatives can do it. But in the meantime they are dealing with an unknown quantity. However, no one should lose sight of the fact that John McCain is the real surprise package here. Palin is only the outcome. McCain has hidden reserves of nerve, cunning and calculation. His body may be old and broken, but evidently his mind hasn’t given up the ghost yet. And it should always be remembered that Ahmadinajad, Putin and Hugo Chavez have resources of secrecy, conspiracy and money far greater than the Republican Party. If McCain can run tactical circles around Obama, imagine what it will be like when BHO strides in for his summits with those deceiving men. BHO can expect some level of civility and decency from McCain. Putin will show Obama no mercy.
