I have been watching the dance in the Black Sea. Dallas’s port call in Sevastopol was a message. But Ukraine’s Yukoshenko weakness was palpable. None of Dallas’s crew disembarked due to concerns of attacks by the populace, which was out in protest.
NATO and US is rotating naval vessels, not merchant vessels in the Black Sea. This is a major message and Russia is very annoyed. Cheney’s visit to Azerbaijan to discuss pipeline and oil security and possible solutions to the threat of Russia is a serious message. Then he travels to Tbilisi the highest profile message of support to Georgia.
The Bush administration is reviewing their positions on sharing of military cooperation with Russia that had been standard in the last 10 years. See http://washingtontimes.com/news/2008/sep/03/white-house-treads-carefully-on-cutting-ties-with-/?page=2
At the Pentagon, spokesman Bryan Whitman said Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates had ordered a review of military cooperation agreements with Russia as part of a wider evaluation of relations in response to the continued presence of Russian troops in parts of Georgia.
Condi Rice is trying to formulate a new policy toward Russia aggression, which deters and has possible rewards. She has a very weak hand with the EU in appeasement mode due to energy concerns. We need to formulate a new idea on what the US wants to see in the Caucasus states for the next twenty years. Do we want to secure the energy routes and what military policies will we used to secure the Caucasus states?
This needs a complete review on what is possible and what is desired. That is why Afghanistan needs to wind down since we have lost Pakistan’s cooperation and will lose Russian cooperation for supply routes.
To be honest I do not think we can fulfill Bulgaria’s and Romania’s NATO obligations with the lack of assets in the area. If we plan to be serious and not rely on paper diplomatic promises for defense needs then we need to move NATO in truth into those countries. That also means port facilities on the Black Sea.
However I believe that Russia will not give up Sevastopol and that will be their line in the sand for war. That brings into play the nuclear threat component. BMD has not yet been built and Russia is forcing us prematurely to deploy when we don’t have the BMD in place yet. The numbers of BMD ships are low since we are still in research rather than operational mode.
Gates needs to redeploys assets and push rebuilding to address the Russia threat with the idea on what will be needed to defend these NATO countries and Georgia and Azerbaijan if that will be our new doctrine.
Bush is not a very good long-term strategic thinker and focuses on the immediate threats rather than long term doctrine. McCain is also a reaction person rather than a long-term strategic thinker. These are very dangerous times and at the moment we are playing for time with the diplomatic front.
The new challenge will be to develop a new strategic vision and then rebuild and deploy the military bases to fulfill that vision to back up the diplomatic agreements. Both Bush and McCain know the national interests but are not that good in forming a doctrine to implement that interest. Palin is an unknown and she seems to be more of a tactical thinker than strategic, though both her and McCain seem to have the will like Bush to fight for the national interest
Russia and now Korea are taking advantage of our political and Iranian distractions to take this opportunity to change and push for their new doctrine.
The Obama camp has not the ability to properly react to the foreign challenges and even though Obama seems to be a strategic thinker his focus is the domestic and liberal appeasement policies.
Dangerous sailing ahead.
