I’ve been on the bridge of a US warship in those waters in near pitch black conditions. It’s totally believable. The waters there can be like glass. You can see a drifting object by it’s water displacement, i.e. it’ll still create ripples. The PT109 lookout could not screen 360 degress at once. History (both Japanese and US) reports no lit cigarettes, and no sleeping watch. There is no counter narrative. The Japanese ship just happened to be on a near collision course with PT-109 when their lookout saw the boat, and a slight course adjustment plus their 20 knot momentum carried it though the PT boat. Kennedy by all accounts was a heroic skipper.

Not messing with history Old Salt. But I simply cannot fathom how a destroyer can sneak up on a PT boat.
Are Destroyers that quiet? Surely one should detect a destroyer farther away than one would detect a PT boat, especially if that destroyer was doing, as you say, 20 knots.
Of course the lookout cannot scan 360 degrees at once but that destroyer did not get to the point of collision by magic. It took awhile to get there.
I did not know that there was a Japanese account of that action. After what we did to their navy, I thought the existence of such a record unlikely.
I just read the Navy report. Interesting that the PT boats were visible enough to be harrassed constantly by Jap float planes at night.
You’re probably right that PT-109 was a target of opportunity that just happened to be close to the path of the destroyer.