Countdown Israel II
But can Jerusalem do nothing? Israel’s economic life will be paralyzed unless it stops the rain of missiles. It cannot stop them without going into Gaza, or striking it heavily with fire. Nor can it delay. A country with so little manpower cannot keep its reserves mobilized indefinitely, so it must act decisively and soon.
For once a crisis is brewing which no amount of bribery — offers of arms to Israel or food and money to Egypt — can long forestall. The true bill for the lies at Benghazi and the entire “Arab Spring” enterprise may no longer be avoided. At long last some answers must be provided. How deep is the administration’s partnership with the Muslim Brotherhood? Just what did the assault on U.S. consulates throughout the region truly portend? Is there substantial opposition to the policy of dealing with the Muslim Brotherhood from within American intelligence agencies or the military?
And if so, why has it not been discussed till now? Why are the papers bannering Paula Broadwell or any number of the tabloid talking points the media trots out to protect Obama? Those tactics have allowed the administration to avoid building a broad, bipartisan, and national consensus for whatever it is doing in the Middle East by laying down a wall of smoke. Operating behind a compliant screen of media apologists and vilifying any critics in its path, the administration has pursued an unaccountable course in the region, saying one thing to the public and doing God knows what in private.
But the time is drawing near when all the skeins must come into the open. A collision between Israel and Egypt would be a clarifying event. It would also be a tragic one.
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Wish we had a video of the vein popping fury of Obama when cornered. Wish we had the video of Obama praising the war against the Israelis at the Rashid Khalidi party.
107 mm launchers are designed for rockets with tubes nearly 4″ wide. Those are fairly big. This does not square with the image of the Arabs as intrepid amateurs challenging the Israelis with rocks and home made Estes rockets. This is a professional combat operation by a modern military with a sophisticated logistics train. Operating as they do by definition the Hamas and Hezbollah forces do not meet the criteria for a Lawful Combatant under the Geneva Conventions. Israel should crush them. By supporting Hamas Morsi not only tears up the peace treaty but he places the inhabitants of Gaza and Egypt outside of the the protection of the Geneva Protocols.
We need our professional staff of Belmont Club Shrinks, Dr Sanity, Jeremy Irons and Batman, to explain how a person with Obama’s personality is likely to behave as he loses control of events when reality intrudes. We may need to send Family Services in to rescue the daughters. Perhaps Tea Party members should start carrying butterfly nets.
Blast @ 1 – ANGER is stage 2.
We’ve already seen a full display of Stage 1.
Stage 1 – Denial
Stage 2 – Anger
Stage 3 – Bargaining
Stage 4 – Depression
Stage 5 – Acceptance
In an earlier thread i noted that he will eventually be run over by the Bus of History. He’s starting to run out of female human shields to throw under the bus before him.
Patience! Give it little time. Time heals all wounds and wounds all heels.
MachiasPrivateer
You are assuming he cares. He doesn’t. Look at his cold, cold eyes. In the words of the song – “Nothing to live or die for, no religion too”.
Because after the Stage 5 acceptance of the Middle Eastern problem, we have the US problem.
Acceptance of the US problem is in the hands of the US citizens. I doubt they will accept what’s on offer.
ADE
Blast…
You can’t ‘corner’ slime.
The mackdaddy of Chicago is a candy boy of a thousand masks.
========
For a fictive profile, read Asimov’s Foundation Trilogy — in particular the crisis inducing character of the ‘mule.’ ( The second book’s plot turns on the mule.)
Though written more than half a century ago, Isaac nailed the 0bamanation.
Though plainly written in the shadow of the Shoah, Asimov’s magnum opus lands a bullseye on Soetoro. It’s uncanny.
I’m surprised that such a SF classic has not been quoted more often here at the BC.
The Mule is the nemesis of Hari Seldon — thwarting his grand scheme to reboot galactic civilization in only one millennia.
A tremendous amount of the trilogy underpins the Star Wars story arc. Coruscant is a direct lift of Trantor — both being galactic capital planets — Manhattan writ global. (I like the punny name Corus-cant as a tribute to the UN — a ocean of dogmatic spew.)
=========
And, wearing his Gonnabee persona, Soetoro is totally on track / on tract to power-dive the global economy right off a cliff.
He can do so by flat-lining the US Dollar via unlimited money printing. Since, essentially, all other fiats are levered off of the ‘rock of America’ — international trade flows must collapse when liquid collateral evaporates, en masse.
(There is not enough gold in the world to finance international trade at current levels — or anything like them. Gold would have to trade at $ 50,000 / troy oz before there would be enough metal to cover international trade — and even then it would work only if fractional backing were permitted. Fiat money creation has proceeded at levels well beyond 2% per annum for a century. The compounding effect is vast, vast.)
We’ve got a president Klink who knows nothing, hears nothings, and sees nothing. What could go wrong?
BTW, it’s a fact of incompetence that ones own incompetence is incompetently judged. So, not only does an incompetent screw up — he must always presume that the foul ups are due to other people. This results in a defense mechanism: throwing fellow travelers under the bus.
Stalin and Hitler did so – and rather infamously. It’s a ‘tell’ when you see high turn-over in the immediate subordinate ranks. (Tenacious toadies don’t count.)
In 0bama’s case, he’s on track to have more purging/ under busing than any American president. It doesn’t even figure to be close.
“tabloid talking points the media trots out to protect Obama”
After avoiding it for the last year, I turned on PBS Lehrer Report last night. They didn’t cover Petraeus’ testimony yesterday. Twinkies, yes. The wonder of Obama’s marvelous campaign, yes.
I guess this year marked the point where they just decided to report as if they are living entirely in their own world, without regard to public opinion, integrity, or truth.
But Israel faces a problem. Demographic and political attitudes have changed in the US (witness the last election) and they have changed even more in Europe. Today it is Israel who is viewed by the “Obama Constituency,” – the Left, the press, academia, European elite opinion – as the aggressor. I believe that the current Israeli leadership understands this and realizes that time is not on their side. That increases the possibility that Israel will strike, and strike soon. Obama may have precipitated the coming war.
” . . . living entirely in their own world, without regard to public opinion, integrity, or truth.”
That’s what liberalism is, no?
And, was there ever any doubt that the department of irony would insist that Barry’s undeserved Peace Prize would give way to his starting WWIII?
maineman #7 — I do wonder if it’s God who has the sense of irony. Peace Prize Warmonger? Sandra Fluke and Bill Clinton on the same night at the Dem convention?
liberalism — at least a few years ago, they’d have addressed the Petraeus testimony but spun it. Now they feel no need to do so because they know many of their followers are brainwashed. A colleague who voted for Obama told me just this week that the $16 trillion national debt is “no big deal,” that he thinks the 47 million on foodstamps figure has been “fabricated,” and that Social Security is as financially sound as Plymouth Rock.
Israel is boxed in, very few if any happy endings here (Daniel 9:27)?
The IDF shouild adopt a simple tactic. They have MRLS, highly mobile rockets with a range of up to 20 miles and loaded with bomblets (844 I think). Every time a rocket is launched toward Israel one should be launched into the area where it came from – not necessarily the launch site itself but just generally into Gaza or other related populated areas.
Of course, the MRLS, designed to break up Soviet troop concentrations in an all out war in Europe, would be far, far more deadly than what the Arabs are shooting. So it would not be a “proportional” response. But, hey, you use what you have…
ADE @ 3 – No (long term) worries mate! After watching the Chicago Dem Machine at close range for decades, I can tell you they lack courage. They are cowardly bullies at heart, which is why they bargain away goodies for votes. They do not know how to win them with ideas. So the “Strong Horse” will eventually win out. Right here at BC you can see the beginnings of a move to push BHO to irrelevancy.
How many votes did Congress give his last few budgets? ZERO! So all it will take is a few Republicans with cujones (a tip o’ the hat to our Hispanic friends!) to start to impose some discipline.
You did notice how “effective” the Occupy Chicago movement was, didn’t you? Mayor Bloomburg may have had masses of unkempt slackers camping out, but Mayor Emanuel did not. And just wait ’til John Kass rips apart the “Rahmfather”. There are a few reporters left out here in Middle America.
You are right that the people will win out. Do you remember that the Tea Party started with taxpayer protests in Daley Plaza?
@9 Or Zechariah 12?
God help Israel and America. Israel attacked from without and America attacked from within.
The future looks grim. Atlas is shrugging and I fear I will witness the landscape of that book.
Subutai, RWE, Fred, the rest of the Belmont Club except Victor; I am with you! I wish we are younger.
Just how much fuel do the Egyptians have to run their tanks and fly their jets? – what would be the impact on their civilian fuel market of a direct military confrontation with the Israeli’s?
I think 1973-redux is not in the near term – things are still in the slow fuse phase – utterly impossible to say what will be our Sarajevo 6/28/1914
What part of “the people” (who you think are going to “win out”) did you not understand from November 6, 2012? The people already won out and they don’t give a rat’s ass about either Israel or America.
Better recalibrate your thoughts to the reality revealed recently.
Is there substantial opposition to the policy of dealing with the Muslim Brotherhood from within American intelligence agencies or the military?
That sentence made the hairs on my neck stand up. Are we that far gone?
#8,
I suspect your colleague may end up like a woman in “Soylent Green” who screams [I'm paraphrasing], “I waited in line all day for my Soylent ration and all I got was this lousy bag of crumbs!”
In Texas I run into quite a few Baptists that are pro Israel. Something about 3/4 of the Bible being Old Testament. Go on to the DBU campus and try bad mouthing Israel.
It is now being noticed that Obama won in states with early voting and no photo ID requirements….I’m shocked!I tell you, shocked! The comparison between Ohio and Indiana is….something ignored by the MSM.
Last I looked it the petition to leave is up to one million.
I am more worried about hezbolla than Egypt at this point.
Iron Dome is doing very well with 90% success rate. The newest battery just went operational in Tel Aviv and has scored an intercept already. The air force is pounding the snot out of Hamas and Israeli troops are already inside Gaza in forward positions. The next phase is already begun. Most importantly the Israeli public is solidly behind the operation.
My wife just found out on Facebook that our local chabad is having a prayer vigil tomorrow for Israel. We will be there. We can all also continue to support Israel politically by having our voices heard on the Internet and social media etc. contributions can be made to mogen David Adom or other groups. Purchasing Israeli products is also a good idea.
rwe @ 10: The IDF should adopt a simple tactic.
155mm artillery. Nothing fancier is called for, and also nothing less.
MLRS are expensive and shouldn’t be used on a pest hole like Gaza.
Small clusters of 155mm guns should be lined up right around the Gaza border.
If the US isn’t going to build the 200mm Crusader high-tech cannon, then Israel should. Sort of Iron Dome’s big brother. Or else the equivalent in ground to ground missiles, relatively low-tech and high-payload.
Iron Dome is a nice technology development, but it’s mostly a dumb show like our TSA security. It costs a fortune and still only catches 50% or so.
Basically Gaza needs to be bulldozed and planted with corn.
But what Israel really needs are allies.
And that, in these later days of the Obamanation, I just don’t know.
Quelle (#12) I think we have been witnessing this and will for a short time to come but Daniel 9:27 is to follow?
MarkJ (#17) “Soylent Green” was a great movie of its day! Soon to be cycled in as a replacement to Global Warming as it cycles out…
Spindok (#19) I continuously pray for Israel, We should really pray even more for America and her sons and daughters! Israel’s future is secure, Americas is not, in fact one could say we are in the deepest bowels of Satan’s humanist delusion.
Two phrases to ponder!
Ben Franklin observed, “Only a virtuous people are capable of freedom. As nations become more corrupt and vicious, they have more need of masters.”
Stonewall Jackson, He famously said to men who wondered at his apparent indifference to danger that “my religious belief teaches me to feel as safe in battle as in bed. God has fixed the time for my death. I do not concern myself about that, but to be always ready, no matter when it may overtake me. That is the way all men should live, and then all would be equally brave”.
Charles White,
Thanks, I needed that! Feeling down for the past week. Stonewall Jackson is right.
6. Moneyrunner & 7. maineman:
When Obama was first elected I told a friend who had voted for him, “He’s going to get a lot of people killed.”
I’m certain the idiot voted for him again. I haven’t spoken to him in a while.
I don’t have printable words to describe how angry I am at the 25% of the voting populace who voted for the criminal in the WH. May God damn the lot of them! They’re going to pay a terrible price for that and I’m going to have not one iota of sympathy for them. They deserve every damned drop of the bitter cup they’re going to have shoved in their faces and I’m going to laugh as they get it forcibly poured down their throats. I’m very close to putting a sign at my gate saying, “If you voted for Hussein, you’re not welcome on this property.” Those voters are TWANLOC and all I have for them is an upraised middle finger and a LOT of 168 grain answers to any attempts at thievery.
If you’re conservative and you live in a commie state, I strongly suggest you leave while you still can. Your life, and almost certainly the number of assets you can retain, may literally depend on how fast you manage your exit.
Blast (#1)
While I’m honored by your apparent faith in my analytic powers (and by the way I’m Jamie, not Jeremy — the latter is my brother, the actor!)
I’m afraid I have no idea whatever how the mind of our dear leader works. To me, he is something new on the American political scene, a figure of such astonishing cynicism and dishonesty, and ability to manipulate the polity and media, that I simply don’t know what to make of him.
Parenthetically, blert (#4), it’s an astonishing fact that all the gold ever discovered will “fit” into a cube 60 meters on a side. Or so I have read.
Jamie Irons
Marzouq:
I have little doubt you would pick up a gun and defend the USA if it was required.
But I wonder, the Muslims who live inside Israel can vote there. And surely many must know what hellish chaos would ensue if Israel was destroyed. If they liked things that way they would have moved to Gaza. I wonder many of them would defend their county. There must be at least a few.
Do you remember that the Tea Party started with taxpayer protests in Daley Plaza?
Granted, the Santelli rant did come from Chicago. But the first taxpayer protests launching the Tea Party were staged in true-blue Seattle in February and April 2010.
If Israel does go to war with one or more of the neighboring ME countries things could get very bad indeed. I imagine that our glorious and dear leader would probably halt any war material, including parts for aircraft, from being exported to Israel. And what would this mean? The Israeli options for fighting back would be limited, and the nuclear option would become more and more probable as the fighting drags on.
At some point it might become unavoidable.
Israel is using artillery and tank fire. They have phased out the 155mm guns in favor of GPS guided rockets which are far more effective against hardened bunkers. They found after Lebanon that standard artillery was very ineffective.
Iron dome does not fire at missiles projected to land in open areas. Of those fired it hits in the 90% range. A few have gotten through but Hamas has little to show for its efforts.
Israel does not intentionally target civilians. That would be the other guys.
19. Spindok
Re buying products from Israel. I’m sure that you know about Buycott Israel which helps one locate Israeli products for sale in Canada and the U.S. and helps one counter specific boycotts of Israeli products.
Others at BC may not be aware of Buycott Israel as a way of supporting Israel at least in some small way.
PD Quig @ 15 – You have missed the difference between a MSM worldview and hard reality. The media heavily impacted the vote and will largely control the talking points, until they don’t, because they do not control reality.
Having been right in the middle of the Deepwater Horizon debate, I can assure you the public perspective can turn on a dime. Do you remember Obama’s biggest public relations challenge, the Gulf Oil Spill? When even Chris Matthews was skeptical (If I hear Steven Chu is a Nobel Prize winning physicist one more time…) and the Ragin’ Cajun James Carville was going bananas on CNN?
The flow of oil into the gulf stopped at 2:23:47 p.m. on July 15, 2010 and Obama was still prattling on about rupture disks the next day, July 16, 2010, after the flow of oil had been permanently halted. http://tinyurl.com/33l8xal
Discussing an event that had occurred in the past, in the future tense?? Obama was “leading from behind” well before the situation in Libya developed.
His style is to use intense polling to follow public opinion so closely that he can claim to be most closely attuned to the voters’ wishes. That does not work when the public does not have well formed pre-existing opinions. You can’t effectively poll because you can’t formulate relevant questions.
He has his head so far up the butts of the voters that he ought to bill them for a colonoscopy. But he is definitely a follower, not a leader. Take the lead of the bandwagon and he will fall in meekly behind. It worked in the gulf.
Last rockets I knew anything about were the 3.5 inchers and the LAW’s, so I’m no authority.
I think this may be what Palestinians are shooting into Israel?
http://articles.janes.com/articles/Janes-Ammunition-Handbook/107-mm-Norinco-rockets-China.html
If so, about a three pound payload of TNT (or something). Maximum range is about 5 1/2 miles. I understand that the rockets launched from Gaza are a lot larger.
Truly the equivalent (as Josh said somewhere) of poking a grizzly bear in the face with a sharp pencil.
Sounds like the launches from the Sinai are mostly political, probably to try to draw in the Egyptians? If it was the Egyptian Army, would not the rockets be something larger and more modern?
#4 – The “Mule” comparison/parallel has been interesting in light of Clinton’s ’08 defeat. 0 really is unlike any previous President or candidate (even Henry Wallace!).
Re “turnover” : an interesting look is http://www.amazon.com/1938-Hitlers-Gamble-Giles-MacDonogh/dp/0465022057/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1353173323&sr=1-1&keywords=1938
Other S F angles : http://www.amazon.com/Canticle-Leibowitz-Walter-Miller-Jr/dp/B0019F39NA/ref=sr_1_4?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1353173701&sr=1-4&keywords=a+canticle+for+leibowitz , part 3 hits modern topics ; http://www.amazon.com/One-Second-After-William-Forstchen/dp/0765356864/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1353173956&sr=1-1&keywords=one+second+after+william+r.+forstchen – post disaster coping/organization.
The Palestinians are sending rockets into Jerusalem. I would love to see them score a direct hit on the Dome of the Rock.
Re. “A collision between Israel and Egypt would be a clarifying event. It would also be a tragic one.”
Tragic one for sure. Clarifying…. is too optimistic.
#3. ADE
MachiasPrivateer
“Acceptance of the US problem is in the hands of the US citizens. I doubt they will accept what’s on offer.”
Oh, yes they will. For much longer then I would like.
s @ 29: Israel does not intentionally target civilians. That would be the other guys.
The other guys are lucky to target a given square mile. I’m just saying that in the spirit of proportionality, counterfire should be the same.
The problems of hardened bunkers are another matter. Of course PGM are better at hitting specific targets, when that is the goal, but even standard PGM will bounce off a hardened bunker, as I understand it Israel basically found they had no munitions at all effective against the bunkers. Since then we have apparently finally shipped them some special purpose bunker-busters that should work nicely.
(I’m also a bit puzzled why it isn’t easier to construct a simple shaped charge as a bunker buster without containing it in a metal pipe, if that’s how they are still building them, I suppose there’s a reason but I’d love to see a layman’s explanation of why)
But I’m not sure I would even target the bunkers right now. I’m not sure I would target anything specific at all. And if the other guys are targeting civilians, I would certainly feel free to do the same, and in fact argue that one is compelled to do the same, by a dozen different arguments. You cannot pretend your opponent is what you want them to be, when they are not. If Sun-Tzu never said something like that (only better) he should have, but maybe he never imagined the blindness and stupidity of our modern cultures.
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If Iron Dome manages to hit 90% of what they aim at that would be remarkable, but still not sufficient, the other 10% still matter, and the supply of munitions for ID is going to be limited, and very expensive while it lasts. The supply of rockets already held by the Palestinians is far too great already, and easily increased further.
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t @ 28: The Israeli options for fighting back would be limited, and the nuclear option would become more and more probable as the fighting drags on.
This is certainly the case, only with this in view, what happens is the nuclear option quickly rises to the top in all situations.
I’m sure there are war gamers at the Pentagon who see this, but whether it gets to the White House, and is understood there, and which side our POTUS sees as desirable, are all unknowns, given that something as simple as Benghazi seems to completely overload their systems.
36 RWE
I posted a comment some threads back in reply to Subotai’s TWANLOC commentary. It was at the end of a long thread discussing the possibility of a new American Revolution or civil war. I explained my change of mind regarding Islam.
I ended by stating I was headed to the American Legion for a beer.
Please send an email if you still have my address. I would like to meet you around Christmas.
4. blert
And, wearing his Gonnabee persona, Soetoro is totally on track / on tract to power-dive the global economy right off a cliff.
He can do so by flat-lining the US Dollar via unlimited money printing. Since, essentially, all other fiats are levered off of the ‘rock of America’ — international trade flows must collapse when liquid collateral evaporates, en masse.
(There is not enough gold in the world to finance international trade at current levels — or anything like them. Gold would have to trade at $ 50,000 / troy oz before there would be enough metal to cover international trade — and even then it would work only if fractional backing were permitted. Fiat money creation has proceeded at levels well beyond 2% per annum for a century. The compounding effect is vast, vast.)
…………….
Yeah, I agree about fiat money. Under normal circumstances the fed would be destroying the value of the dollar by printing money. And the value of the dollar has been falling fairly steadily over the last several decades and especially in the last decade.
but….
these are not normal circumstances. the dollar is not going to implode.
the US has just entered the first phase of a paradigm shift in the oil patch. The result is that the US will be energy independent in a decade or so. Further the value of oil/gas deposits in the ground is more than 100 years supply or say 100 trillion dollars.
That’s a lot of new collateral/backstop for the dollar.
The consequence is that the borrowing is not going to be fatal. In fact, over the next couple years the dollar is going to put in a low and start rising against other currencies.
Why? All oil independent countries have hard currencies. Oil backing has the same effect on currency that gold backing does.
Even incompetent over spending socialist governments like the one in Brazil get by because they are also energy independent.
Heck even under the communist nincompoop chavez–Venezuela gets by because of their oil.
Josh @ 36:
The penetration of a shaped charge is proportional to its diameter. That’s why with anit-tank weapons the old 2.36″ “Bazooka” gave way to the LAW, then the TOW, etc. Larger diameter means greater penetration.
However, you run into a number of practical problems as you increase diameter. You need either a larger tube to launch the projectile from or in the case of a bomb, that increased cross-sectional area leads to a quadratic increase in drag. Also, consider that while the area of the shaped charge increases with the square of the diameter, the weight increases with its cube.
The rule of thumb with regard to penetration is that a properly designed shaped charge will penetrate about 2.5X to 3X its diameter. Consider a bunker with 10-foot reinfoced concrete walls–120 inches. Best case with a shaped charge, you would need a weapon 40-inches in diameter to bust it.
Drawing an analogy with tanks, you can see that there are two apporaches to the problem. Shaped-charges, or HEAT rounds, can work but the most effective rounds against armor are small-diameter, high-velocity rounds that maximize kinetic energy to penetrate the armor, so-called Sabot rounds.
So, back in the Stone Age when they had to bust Saddam’s bunkers during the first Gulf War, they took the harderend steel barrels of retired 8-inch howitzers, filled them with explosive (shaped charge itself, if I remember correctly, stuck a laser gudance kit on the thing from a Paveway LGB and called it a GBU-28. It weighed about 4,500 pounds (about 2,000 pounds of explosive) as I recall, and could be delivered supersonically with extreme precision by either the F-111F or F-15E. They cut through Saddam’s deepest bunkers like a hot knife through butter (Some under 60 feet of soil and reinforced concrete, I think). Use the “sabot” (howitzer tube)to crack and penetrate the concrete and follow up with the charge (2,000-pounds, baby!) to pulverize or incinerate anything inside. Think of it as the Reese’s Peanut Butter Cup of aircraft munitions, or perhaps our dear late and lamented Twinkie. The new stuff is light-years better.
Hope this helps!
Cool resolve and a smile.
Marzouq @ 37:
I’m afraid I missed that and would find your thoughts most interesting to read. Glad to see you around again, bud. And from a proud Northern California redneck, never give up your redneck heart!
Highlander,
I shall try to find that post and repost it. Never gave up my Christian heat either. I guess that says it all.
Now that I understand that all violence is rooted in videos, which video is it that has these Hamas chaps so hacked-off?
Twenty years ago I read a book called Generations, by Neil Howe and William Strauss (still in print, available at Amazon, and well worth reading). In it, the authors trace the history of the US through a four generational cycle, running (if I remember correctly) Passive, Passive/Aggressive, Aggressive/Passive and Aggressive, explaining that what the US is and does is largely influenced by which generation is in charge. Using the generational chart in the book, it seemed to me at the time that the next Aggressive generation, defined as a generation that will respond to a blow with a blow, will be the dominant generation beginning about 2014. Events over the past twenty years seem to bear this out, in that the dominant US generation has been Aggressive/Passive over this time, and has not responded vigorously to the war Islam declared on us in 1979, many elements in the US even denying that a war existed. That war is now entering a phase where we must respond, and the next generation in the cycle is an Aggressive one, and therefore we can look for a major war sometime after 2014. Remember, the thesis is that the US will not necessarily start this big war, but that we will respond with force to attack, something the Passive generations try very hard, and usually successfully, to avoid. So we shall see. Iran looks to have the bomb along about 2014, and China is moving aggressively in Asia, with the aim of challenging the US in the area. Interesting times, regardless of whether Howe and Strauss got it right twenty years ago.
Yeah but Walt, I don’t think we’re in the cycle anymore.
Like Europe, the cycle now is more like passive, passive/passive, totally pussified, and self-destructive.
Wretchard – as always you go straight to the heart – “For once a crisis is brewing which no amount of bribery — offers of arms to Israel or food and money to Egypt — can long forestall. The true bill for the lies at Benghazi and the entire ‘Arab Spring’ enterprise may no longer be avoided.” Reality doesn’t bark, it bites. Shabbat Shalom.
Perhaps, cause, and effect.
We have seen NATO using American assets to overthrow governments in North Africa, and refusing to use them to allow the overthrow of government like Egypt. Was the attack on 9-11-12 the result of someone within the chain of command not following an unlawful order?
Did the Muslim Brotherhood not get what they expected from the Americans in Libya? Now, causing Hamas to pull the tigers chain? I don’t know, but I smell the world system agenda in the whole FUBAR pagan holiday of blood called the Arab spring. Now, here we are with Israel being attacked by the Muslim Brotherhood’s military wing in Gaza called Hamas.
Josh/44
I believe in cycles, mostly becuase Mark Twain said history doesn’t repeat itself but it does rhyme. I accept your cycles, especially the last one, self destruction, but that is the point. After self destruction comes reconstruction, and that begins 20 January 2017. Do not despair, do not give up hope, for nothing lasts forever, neither the good and desirable nor the bad and destructive. That is also the vercict of history.
Really? You think ovomit supports Israel? What nonsense. He IS a muslim and he HOPES Israel is annihilated. Everything he has done proves it.
He is pure evil, a malignant psychopath who only cares about himself.
Here’s the nightmare (worst case) scenario as I see it. I don’t necessarily think this will happen, just a worst case:
1. The Muslims, emboldened by dear leader’s gentle handling and outright support of them, coupled with his tepid support of Israel, escalate things beyond what they might normally do.
2. The Israelis respond predictably and justifiably with overwhelming force. This enrages the UN, Obama, and all the others cut from the same vile leftist cloth.
3. Obama tells the Israelis to back down. When they refuse he issues some ridiculous ultimatum and withdraws all US support unless the Israelis agree to his terms of giving away the farm to the Muslims.
4. Other Muslim groups and countries, sensing a rare opportunity with Israel cut off and abandoned by its greatest ally, take advantage of the perceived weakness, piling on the Jihad wagon to do their best to drive Israel into the sea.
5. Obama refuses to relent and come to Israel’s aid. He’s far too arrogant and “anti-colonial”. Left without the supplies, ammunition, parts, manpower, fuel etc to carry on conventional military operations Israel is forced to take the nuclear option.
One thing making this scenario a bit less likely is that Syria (traditional Israeli enemy) is preoccupied with its own civil war, and other factions may not be as organized as they were in the Yom Kippur war. Still, if Israel were to be publicly abandoned, an outpouring of hatred and jihad may well flood out of the middle east to take advantage of the golden opportunity of weakness. There is some precedent for Obama putting ridiculous demands on the Israelis, like a two state solution and return to pre-1968 borders before talks could even begin. When the pictures of the dead Palestinian children get paraded all over the media (who will conveniently forget the dead Israeli children) his inner batshit left wing reactionary anti-colonialist may more fully assert itself in making any support of Israel contingent on demands that it cannot possibly accept. He does have more flexibility now after the election is over after all.
Even if the nightmare scenario does not come to pass right away, Israel’s necessary response to the Islamic aggression will provide Obama with an excellent “humanitarian” excuse to further distance the US from Israel, which will help encourage the next round of attacks and so fourth. I do not know how this conflict or the ones to follow will turn out, but what I do know with a good deal of certainty is that “the won” will pimp out every dead Palestinian child he can in order to try and garner sympathy for his buddies the muslims. His reaction to Bengazi and speech in front of the UN tell us that much. Count on it.
Perhaps its time to return to 1967 borders—-the 1967 borders after the Six Day War, where Israel again occupies Gaza and the Sinai.
I don’t think the Egyptians want war a war with us.
The Israelis are masterfully executing the defense of their nation, and their timing is perfect. The Arabs are presently fragmented and weak. Egypt is too nascent and disorganised to pose any serious military threat. Iran is using rhetoric to buy time to achieve a bare minimum nuclear weapons capability, but they are still too far away. The US administration is weak and does not have the stones to withdraw support (BHO would love to do this but cannot find a politically feasible way to do so because the Israelis are responding to indiscriminate rocket attacks on civilians, and he is too weak for such decisive course alteration in any case, particularly considering his tepid domestic support). Israeli “aggression” will draw all Arab comers, but before they stand a chance. Iran will be drawn in and that is what the Israelis want, because it will enable them cover to scorch the Earth without it being prompted by counter proliferation alone. 1967 part deux, and when the Arabs get their tails handed to them (with or without US support), the difference will be that Israel will be playing for keeps and the entire non Arab world — principally the West — will be silently rooting for them to succeed, because the problems caused by impotent savages have finally registered on their respective radars.
Destroying the Aswan Dam would result in approximately 31.5 cubic miles of water rushing downhill towards the over 15 million human beings trapped in the Cairo metropolitan area. No disaster in human history, including the floods after the explosion of Thera or the floods when the Pleistocene Ice Ages ended, that underlay the story of Noah, could I think match that. Perhaps there was a memory of the flooding of the Black Sea basin, and that was before the formation of cities, that was similarly catastrophic. It would be more devastating than an atomic bomb. The Israelis would not do that. My fear is that some Islamists seeking redemption through annihilation will look at the Dam, and the Copts downstream and the Jews nearby threatening to “humiliate” Islam and the Europeans ready willing and able to blame the Jews for anything, and give it a try. Destroying the Dam would be hard but with the support of a state like Iran they might have the resources to try.
If a war were to break out between Israel and Egypt or we had credible intelligence, I know given our recent track record that is a problem, of a threat to the Dam then I would support the US moving in forces to secure and protect the structure. If it were to destroyed then I would support using US forces to retrieve the priceless cultural artifacts and antiquities in the path of destruction. Unfortunately I do not believe that we would be able to save most of the people. Even if they were able to evacuate before the flood reached Cairo the city and Nile valley would probably become uninhabitable. Where could people surrounded by the desert evacuate to in the limited time available? How could they survive? I would not admit millions of Egyptian refugees into America under those circumstances.
#49 TPM
You have written the history of the future. We do tend to think of the Three Conjectures as being something exclusive to the United States. At the farthest reaches of the imagination, we can barely conceive of Britain or France being forced into something like that.
We can be absolutely positive that Israel has worked out its own equivalent. Not all, in fact most do not, depend on a WMD attack. If the existence of the State of Israel is threatened, by anyone including us, things are going to get radioactive in a bunch of places right smartly.
Subotai Bahadur
Obama doesn’t know “math” well enough to “square the circle” on this debacle. That is evidenced by the fact that he has yet to get a budget passed in Congress. As far as Israel; she will not take it on the chin without firing back as has been seen over the past week. Israel can’t afford to wait around until Obama actually does something to prove that he “has their back” as past experience reveals his lack of interest in all matters Israel in spite of his rhetoric. The thing about the attacks on our Embassies and “consulate”(that wasn’t really a consulate)in Libya could have just been an attempt to rouse the sleeping bear, kind of like poking a bee hive, to rouse things up and when that didn’t get Obama connected they went on after Israel. This whole thing is being orchestrated by Iran/Russia don’tcha know. Israel can hold her own until she can’t anymore. It is only then that things get right. God says “Enough” and steps in. Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria, Russia, Iran, Egypt et al haven’t seen anything yet! Neither has America.
Israel has to make decisive and overwhelming action in its dealings with the cesspit that is Gaza. They cannot afford attrition. Egypt through Morsi is rattling her cage, while at the same time they cannot feed themselves nor have much of an economy. My uneducated guess is the military will not allow Morsi to do anything but foam. However if Egypt plays dogpile on Israel and the Israelis feel that their existence as a nation is threatened, really existentially threatened, Israel will nuke Aswan dam as a last resort. That will take Egypt out of the fight. Out. Period. And they will do it to the Mad Mullahs of Iran at Teheran and Qom. This is not tit for tat any more. This is for keeps. It is up to the Egyptian Military to keep the nutcases out of the fight in Egypt. Iran needs to be taught that they will be hurt when they stir the pot.
Obama is finished with respect to the middle east. He demonstrates weakness. Good or bad, when you are weak, governments look down on you. The game will go on without him and the US. For better or for worse. The die is cast. We are now spectators.
4. blert
Great comments about the Asimov trilogy. I never had thought to equate the Mule with Obama but quite apt. And here is one for you, the MSM has covered over the truth about Obama as effectively as Trantor was covered over with metal.
Israel is going to do what Israel needs to do. SURVIVE. Giving the state of Egypt’s economy no one should be surprise if The MB tries to provoke Israel in order to divert attention from its domestic and economic troubles. Sooner or latter something has to give, when it happens the entire Middle East will start unraveling. The question then is, what Hussein O will do? Given Hussein O track record I’m not very optimistic.
“The potential collision between Egypt and Israel over Gaza now threatens to catch him between two fires. A collision between the two American “allies” will force him to reap the bitter fruit of trying to be all things to all men; of trying to support the Brotherhood, with its hostility to Israel — and Israel. He will have to square the circle or openly choose sides in a way that not even the New York Times can conceal.”
No, not really. He will side with the Muslim Brotherhood.
After all, he won re-election. He no longer needs to pretend that he does not hate Israel and Jews in general.
Also, by siding with the Brotherhood, he will hope to gain (mistakenly, IMHO) new influence with Turkey and other moslem nations.
Never forget his many years listening to that black Nazi, “Rev. Wright.”
Also, recall the kerfuffle at the democratic convention about recognizing Jerusalem as capitol of Israel.
I could care less for either the Jews or Muslims of the Middle East. The world would be a better place without their constant bickering. The Mongol hordes should of annihilated all Middle Eastern filth when they had the chance. I’d be happy to live in a Jew and Muslim free world.
Re: TPM # 49: Should the scenario you suggest go down, I would expect the Israelis to turn to their new BFFs, the Russians, the Saudis and Indians. They are already trading RPV technology with Russia. There were reports last year of a deal between Israel and Saudi for overflight on a strike against Iran. And I throw in India because they are about to be the second biggest players in the region (after Israel).
Old combat maxim from planning is that the enemy gets a vote on the outcome. And if the Iranian in the WH (Jarrett) and the MB sympathizers in State and at the UN (Rice, Hilly and Foggy Bottom) manage to stop the US from supporting Israel in what they need to do, I expect Israel to turn to its Plan B. When that happens, expect congress to get involved with the Islamist sympathizers in the Executive. Bring popcorn. Cheers -