https://pjmedia.com/richardfernandez/2010/05/25/the-crystal-ball/feed/PJ Media is a leading news site covering culture, politics, faith, homeland security, and more. Our reporters and columnists provide original, in-depth analysis from a variety of perspectives.en-usWed, 10 Jun 2026 06:36:10 -0400<![CDATA[Niall Ferguson in an article for Economic History Review asked why the bond market failed to anticipate World War 1 any better than anyone else. &#8220;The main question addressed [in the paper] is why political events appeared to affect the &#8230; the London bond market, much less between 1881 and 1914 than they had between 1843 and 1880. In particular, I ask why the outbreak of the First World War &#8230; was not apparently anticipated &#8230; To investors, the First World War truly came as a bolt from the blue.&#8221;]]>Tue, 25 May 2010 07:15:05 -0400<![CDATA[Richard Fernandez]]>https://pjmedia.com/richard-fernandez/2010/05/25/the-crystal-ball-n189797