“Assured nuclear sneak attack? Really? I understand that is your worst nightmare (mine too, since I live here) but realistically what are the chances of AQ getting one without us knowing about it?”

I think (hope?) that the chances of AQ getting a nuke are relatively low, and certainly not “assured.” But should they manage to do so “under the table,” do you really trust the US intelligence agencies to know about it? (Prior to the wee giveaway of a mushroom cloud, that is.)

The fact that we have so many of our conventional ground forces tied up doesn’t stop the U.S. from striking a heavy or indeed devastating blow against Syria or Iran to name just two. Of the USAF and USN, transport and support functions have mostly been tasked for both Iraqi Freedom and Enduring Freedom. For the entirety of both operations only a tiny fraction of conventional air power or sea-based power has been utilized. Both Syria and Iran have serious coastlines to defend. Both have largely antiquated and second rate air defense systems that can be taken down by our forces. Both have some very expensive and time consuming to replace assets on or near their coasts. Iran’s entire economy could be crippled for years or decades in 45 minutes worth of bombing, missiling, shelling, and commando direct action. Syria is only less vulnerable because all their economic eggs aren’t in the oil basket.
We have plenty of options, but no will power to pursue any of them anyway….under the current administration.

There’s no doubt in my mind that OBL has the will to nuke an American city. It is his ability to do so relative to the cost of maintaining a large military presence in a landlocked country with money borrowed from our adversaries that concerns me.

Furthermore I am not convinced that any of our activity in Afghanistan post Tora Bora has helped increase our security, any more than me taking of my shoes at the airport.

I think getting bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan after the initial raids was a mistake. Our forces are tied down there now. We have a diminished capacity to conduct similar raids against Iran or Syria for example. We can’t tell those guys ‘hey, this could happen to you too if you don’t knock it off,’ because they know we are overstretched.

“With Obama as CinC it may be better to walk from Afghaistan or just keep a small footprint with air power.”

With the Messiah as CinC, no correct decisions are likely. Until 2012, the US is walking around with a “Kick Me” sign attached to its hind end. The moonbats are smiling but the rest of us will just have to grit our teeth. Maybe the Chosen One will get frustrated and resign like Nixon did (I can dream can’t I?).

“Assured nuclear sneak attack? Really? I understand that is your worst nightmare (mine too, since I live here) but realistically what are the chances of AQ getting one without us knowing about it?”

Captain Ramen is correct (and I stand corrected). Nothing is assured when dealing with a terrorist group like al Qaeda. However try to get inside bin Laden’s head. To maintain street-cred with the Islamic masses, bin Laden is more or less obligated to one-up 9/11 and that’s very hard to do with anything short of a nuke. New York and Los Angeles are the obvious targets outside of Israel. Bin Laden can get his weapon from rogue elements in Pakistan, Iran or North Korea if he can come up with the cash (easy to do with dissident Saudi money). The hard part with a nuke is the fissile transuranics for the pit. It actually requires more fissile transuranics for a primitive gun type bomb than a Tsar Bomba (deuterium and depleted uranium are relatively easy to obtain). Consequently a Tsar Bomba in a shipping container really is bin Laden’s most logical next option.

Suggest you read the book “Kill Bin LAden” by the officer who commanded the Delta force unit that went to Tora Bora. No way we could have gotten any large number troops in there. The terrain would not have allowed it and a large force of US troops likely would have been opposed as invaders by the Afghan forces there who were our “allies.”

Now, a blocking force of Marines along the Paki border to cut off Bin Laden’s escape might have done it, but once again, that would have required Paki cooperation and that was not forthcoming.

I think that attitude speaks for itself.

difficult and easily a career (and freedom) ender. Given that CIA officers will be prosecuted for any infraction comitted by their agents…

You may only recruit alter boys as agent… and they don’t know anything.

Given the perfidios nature of the Democrats in DC, It will only get worse.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IruUSNql5JM
or
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1A_LYDMIDEE

“Forget it, Jake. It’s Chinatown.”

I don’t pretend to have the right answer and this is one of very few issues where I sympathize with Obama (tho he created a lot of his problem by cynical short-term political posturing).

My gut tells me that back in 2001 we should have treated it as what used to be called a “Punitive Expedition”. Powell’s Pottery Barn Rule, “You broke it, you bought ir,” makes no sense as an analogy when applied to a country where there was/is almost nothing to break. Had we caught Bin Laden and Zawahiri and Mullah Omar, maybe leaving would have been viable. But, we didn’t (thanks, Mr. Rumsfeld, for not putting any real boots on the ground in Tora Bora)… so the “punitive” part wasn’t really executed.

the acronym FUBAR comes to mind.