The general replaced this time just didn’t fit perfectly. At this high stage in their careers, they should either quit or be happy with the time to serve that they are allowed. When I was a soldier under generals, I sure as hell hoped that if someone thought another general would do better then we shouldn’t worry about feelings or politics or anything — just make the swap and get on with it.

Most generals are graceful when they are replaced. That is right and the way it should be. We citizens can ask all the questions we want but we don’t have to ponder that the replaced general is disgraced — unless you see something stronger than asking someone to resign.

Mexico.
There is no longer security in isolation for America. Northern Mexico is dissolving under the pressure of corruption, drug gangs, and both Sunni and Shiite infiltration. Once they get a warhead they will be able to smuggle it into Mexico and then it will only be a matter of time. Tons of drugs breach the border routinely and enter the United States. How can we expect to keep out a warhead under these circumstances?

Paradoxically the swine flu episode might have strengthened the hand of the central government and bought us a little breathing space.

In 1939-45 not even fire-bombing of whole cities, in retaliation for the Blitz, led to the belligerents changing their tune.

Just perhaps the Predator strikes are the most successful part of AfPak. In time they might condition AQ etc to equate jihadi action with an unexpected missile in the middle of the night.

http://cdrsalamander.blogspot.com/2009/05/mckiernan-out.html

There will be two Generals running the show which will probably one too many chefs in the kitchen. This will give Obama the cover he needs to cut & run.

[Navy Times]

Gates said he will nominate Army Lt. Gen. Stanley McChrystal, a special operations veteran who now is director of the Joint Staff, to replace McKiernan. He also said he will create a new post dubbed deputy commander for Afghanistan forces. Army Lt. Gen. David Rodriguez will be tapped for that position.

http://www.navytimes.com/news/2009/05/military_mckiernan_gates_051109w/

[cdrsalamander]

“Nothing against LtGen McChrystal – but unlike some, I am not all that happy with this rumor… Gen. McKiernan is the right man at the right time in the right job. Only now are his ideas starting to be put in place. He needs, no – deserves – another year.”

My guess is that the non-proliferation regime is collapsing and that the current political leadership in the West will accelerate its demise. The police model is coming to an end. A lot of pundits have predicted that some time in the next decade, there will be a WMD terror attack on a Western city. What they’ve not predicted is what happens after that. One trajectory from that point is a slow slide into a Three Conjectures type situation. The politicians won’t be able to solve it and then at some point, something will snap and a catastrophe will ensue. At that point either a new and brutal sheriff will emerge from the chaos and the police model will be re-established; The other possibility is that new equilibrium will emerge because the “other side” — whoever that may be, will be struck with a deniable reprisal. In other words, bushwhack will be met by bushwhack.

Suppose for example, Mumbai vanished in a blast with no one admitting responsibility? A nuclear version of the last attack. But what if a half dozen Pakistani cities were to go up with no one claiming the credit. Would the militants stop? Maybe. In the face of that kind of brutal reprisal there would be a lot of internal social pressure to cool it. They’d enforce control internally out of the need to survive. At least for a while. Universal nuclear disarmament except for the police will be replaced by universal concealed carry. We go from the police model to the Wild West model. Instead of a single gigantic Three Conjectures event, you might have a dozen little nuclear exchanges until some way is found to cool things down.

Either way, the current political generation will have failed to meet the test of keeping the peace and we’ll go into an uncertain future where the open travel, trade and security of the last thirty years is replaced by a dark and terrifying era.