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	<title>Comments on: And now Iran</title>
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	<link>http://pjmedia.com/richardfernandez/2009/01/09/and-now-iran/</link>
	<description>Just another Pajamasmedia.com weblog</description>
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		<title>By: Al_Batross</title>
		<link>http://pjmedia.com/richardfernandez/2009/01/09/and-now-iran/#comment-29592</link>
		<dc:creator>Al_Batross</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 12 Jan 2009 21:15:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://pajamasmedia.com/richardfernandez/?p=1797#comment-29592</guid>
		<description>&quot;***if*** it is technically possible without using nuclear weapons&quot; - Eggplant.

I think it may not be possible without something very special. There was the &quot;Rods from God&quot; idea maybe 2 years ago, Kinetic energy weapons released from the upper atmosphere which might penetrate the deepest bunkers, but maybe that was just a figment. 
I fear it is going to come down to action by the Israelis, with whatever they can cook up...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;***if*** it is technically possible without using nuclear weapons&#8221; &#8211; Eggplant.</p>
<p>I think it may not be possible without something very special. There was the &#8220;Rods from God&#8221; idea maybe 2 years ago, Kinetic energy weapons released from the upper atmosphere which might penetrate the deepest bunkers, but maybe that was just a figment.<br />
I fear it is going to come down to action by the Israelis, with whatever they can cook up&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: Eggplant</title>
		<link>http://pjmedia.com/richardfernandez/2009/01/09/and-now-iran/#comment-29433</link>
		<dc:creator>Eggplant</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 12 Jan 2009 00:00:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://pajamasmedia.com/richardfernandez/?p=1797#comment-29433</guid>
		<description>twobyfour said:

&quot;In our case, we get a troll with 100% lefty talking points and logic ...&quot;

I had similar suspicions.  A few questions about Islam or in Arabic might have embarrassed the troll into silence.  However it is usually best to ignore trolls.

Al_Batross asked:

&quot;I take it that you have some doubts about the sincerity of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s belief in the Hidden Iman?&quot;  

I believe that Ahmadinejad is a cynical politician with little real power.  I also believe that Ahmadinejad is serving as a Goebbels style minister of propaganda for the mullahs who hold actual political power in Iran.  Ahmadinejad will be removed from public view after the mullahs grow tired of him or find him an embarrassment.  Ahmadinejad&#039;s media comments should be regarded as irrelevant noise.  However I do believe the Iranian nuclear weapon and ballistic missile programs are genuine threats to world peace.  Those programs should be terminated with preemptive military raids ***if*** it is technically possible without using nuclear weapons.  However it maybe impossible to destroy the Iranian nuclear strategic weapons without using our own nuclear weapons (their uranium enrichment facilities maybe buried too deep).  If that&#039;s true then the problem is too hard for me to form a valid opinion.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>twobyfour said:</p>
<p>&#8220;In our case, we get a troll with 100% lefty talking points and logic &#8230;&#8221;</p>
<p>I had similar suspicions.  A few questions about Islam or in Arabic might have embarrassed the troll into silence.  However it is usually best to ignore trolls.</p>
<p>Al_Batross asked:</p>
<p>&#8220;I take it that you have some doubts about the sincerity of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s belief in the Hidden Iman?&#8221;  </p>
<p>I believe that Ahmadinejad is a cynical politician with little real power.  I also believe that Ahmadinejad is serving as a Goebbels style minister of propaganda for the mullahs who hold actual political power in Iran.  Ahmadinejad will be removed from public view after the mullahs grow tired of him or find him an embarrassment.  Ahmadinejad&#8217;s media comments should be regarded as irrelevant noise.  However I do believe the Iranian nuclear weapon and ballistic missile programs are genuine threats to world peace.  Those programs should be terminated with preemptive military raids ***if*** it is technically possible without using nuclear weapons.  However it maybe impossible to destroy the Iranian nuclear strategic weapons without using our own nuclear weapons (their uranium enrichment facilities maybe buried too deep).  If that&#8217;s true then the problem is too hard for me to form a valid opinion.</p>
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		<title>By: SunSword</title>
		<link>http://pjmedia.com/richardfernandez/2009/01/09/and-now-iran/#comment-29325</link>
		<dc:creator>SunSword</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 11 Jan 2009 06:50:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://pajamasmedia.com/richardfernandez/?p=1797#comment-29325</guid>
		<description>In an actual conflict between Iran and the USA, Iran would be turned into a 17th century nation. Because -- the USA does not need to invade Iran, on the contrary, it would not do so. The USA would merely:
(a) Take out the Iranian air defenses, sink the Iranian navy, and destroy their ports
(b) Blockade the ports so no shipping in or out
(c) Destroy their refinery so no more gasoline
(d) Bomb every hydroelectric or other electrical power generation station, plus all transformer stations
(e) Bomb the high voltage lines

With no gasoline or ability to generate electrical power, and no shipping of oil for revenue -- no shipping of anything in or out by sea -- Iran would become a 17th century nation again.

And oh by the way -- if we REALLY wanted to prevent them from developing nukes, this approach works just fine. Takes a lot of electrical generation and distribution capacity to spin all those centrifuges and light, heat, and cool those underground labs and assembly areas.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In an actual conflict between Iran and the USA, Iran would be turned into a 17th century nation. Because &#8212; the USA does not need to invade Iran, on the contrary, it would not do so. The USA would merely:<br />
(a) Take out the Iranian air defenses, sink the Iranian navy, and destroy their ports<br />
(b) Blockade the ports so no shipping in or out<br />
(c) Destroy their refinery so no more gasoline<br />
(d) Bomb every hydroelectric or other electrical power generation station, plus all transformer stations<br />
(e) Bomb the high voltage lines</p>
<p>With no gasoline or ability to generate electrical power, and no shipping of oil for revenue &#8212; no shipping of anything in or out by sea &#8212; Iran would become a 17th century nation again.</p>
<p>And oh by the way &#8212; if we REALLY wanted to prevent them from developing nukes, this approach works just fine. Takes a lot of electrical generation and distribution capacity to spin all those centrifuges and light, heat, and cool those underground labs and assembly areas.</p>
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		<title>By: Subotai Bahadur</title>
		<link>http://pjmedia.com/richardfernandez/2009/01/09/and-now-iran/#comment-29310</link>
		<dc:creator>Subotai Bahadur</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 11 Jan 2009 05:27:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://pajamasmedia.com/richardfernandez/?p=1797#comment-29310</guid>
		<description>#70 Storm-Rider

With all due respect, in reference to Hussein Pasha; there are &lt;em&gt;questions&lt;/em&gt; on those issues?

I think that matters are pretty well resolved on both, not in our favor; but resolved.

I submit that the unresolved questions outstanding are:

1) How bad is it going to get, in what specific ways?

2) How will we respond?

3) Will the Oath be defended, by whom, and how?

4) Successfully?

Subotai Bahadur</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#70 Storm-Rider</p>
<p>With all due respect, in reference to Hussein Pasha; there are <em>questions</em> on those issues?</p>
<p>I think that matters are pretty well resolved on both, not in our favor; but resolved.</p>
<p>I submit that the unresolved questions outstanding are:</p>
<p>1) How bad is it going to get, in what specific ways?</p>
<p>2) How will we respond?</p>
<p>3) Will the Oath be defended, by whom, and how?</p>
<p>4) Successfully?</p>
<p>Subotai Bahadur</p>
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		<title>By: Storm-Rider</title>
		<link>http://pjmedia.com/richardfernandez/2009/01/09/and-now-iran/#comment-29300</link>
		<dc:creator>Storm-Rider</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 11 Jan 2009 05:01:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://pajamasmedia.com/richardfernandez/?p=1797#comment-29300</guid>
		<description>&quot;Whether BHO can handle the world any better than he did in Chicago remains to be seen. But even if the new President were superbly competent the world may now be in an unmanageable condition.&quot;

The question is not competence - the question is loyalty.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;Whether BHO can handle the world any better than he did in Chicago remains to be seen. But even if the new President were superbly competent the world may now be in an unmanageable condition.&#8221;</p>
<p>The question is not competence &#8211; the question is loyalty.</p>
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		<title>By: slade</title>
		<link>http://pjmedia.com/richardfernandez/2009/01/09/and-now-iran/#comment-29275</link>
		<dc:creator>slade</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 11 Jan 2009 02:49:56 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Well LoTM at least you analysts are thinking about it, which would be the point to those of us blowing snow in flyover country.  It&#039;s the confidence factor, which, right now, is low.

Low.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Well LoTM at least you analysts are thinking about it, which would be the point to those of us blowing snow in flyover country.  It&#8217;s the confidence factor, which, right now, is low.</p>
<p>Low.</p>
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		<title>By: Lifeofthemind</title>
		<link>http://pjmedia.com/richardfernandez/2009/01/09/and-now-iran/#comment-29273</link>
		<dc:creator>Lifeofthemind</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 11 Jan 2009 02:24:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://pajamasmedia.com/richardfernandez/?p=1797#comment-29273</guid>
		<description>The assumption that 21st century automotive plants can be shifted to useful war production because it was possible 65 years ago may be misplaced.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The assumption that 21st century automotive plants can be shifted to useful war production because it was possible 65 years ago may be misplaced.</p>
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		<title>By: Steynian 306 &#171; Free Canuckistan!</title>
		<link>http://pjmedia.com/richardfernandez/2009/01/09/and-now-iran/#comment-29255</link>
		<dc:creator>Steynian 306 &#171; Free Canuckistan!</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 10 Jan 2009 23:25:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://pajamasmedia.com/richardfernandez/?p=1797#comment-29255</guid>
		<description>[...] GEE, D&#8217;YA THINK?!? Former Secretary of Defense William Perry predicts that a nuclear Iran will challenge the [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] GEE, D&#8217;YA THINK?!? Former Secretary of Defense William Perry predicts that a nuclear Iran will challenge the [...]</p>
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		<title>By: veracious</title>
		<link>http://pjmedia.com/richardfernandez/2009/01/09/and-now-iran/#comment-29246</link>
		<dc:creator>veracious</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 10 Jan 2009 22:45:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://pajamasmedia.com/richardfernandez/?p=1797#comment-29246</guid>
		<description>Slade@62 et al,

I&#039;ve the same instinct about losing so large a portion of our car manufacturing, for the same security concerns, e.g., being able to switch manufacturing easiely from cars to mil. vehicles.

Similarily, I regret loses in  other manufacturing or in general, production!  Then, it seems obvious to me that sending your military manufacturing overseas, to just _friends, is folly, especially e.g., key Cruise Missle guidance system components.  

Over...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Slade@62 et al,</p>
<p>I&#8217;ve the same instinct about losing so large a portion of our car manufacturing, for the same security concerns, e.g., being able to switch manufacturing easiely from cars to mil. vehicles.</p>
<p>Similarily, I regret loses in  other manufacturing or in general, production!  Then, it seems obvious to me that sending your military manufacturing overseas, to just _friends, is folly, especially e.g., key Cruise Missle guidance system components.  </p>
<p>Over&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: Al_Batross</title>
		<link>http://pjmedia.com/richardfernandez/2009/01/09/and-now-iran/#comment-29241</link>
		<dc:creator>Al_Batross</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 10 Jan 2009 22:02:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://pajamasmedia.com/richardfernandez/?p=1797#comment-29241</guid>
		<description>&quot;Somebody in an Iranian missile silo who really does believe in the 12th Iman decides to take things into his own hands&quot; - Eggplant

Eggplant
I take it that you have some doubts about the sincerity of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad&#039;s belief in the Hidden Iman ? I have wondered about that in the past, but I have not heard that he has ever publicly expressed doubts about the Iman or, more importantly, the imminence of his return to earth ? He appears to be believe that he is one of the Iman&#039;s special helpers, “a nail”, and some have even  suggested that he may be the Iman himself. 
This  might all just be an act for the humble poor of Iran, who are accepting hardships and the cost of  the  nuclear programme in the belief that they will receive holy jam tomorrow, but if Ahmadinejad is actually pursuing some carnal schemes of his own, why run down the oil industry and waste so many resources on the nuclear program ? And why do such a good job of convincing Israel that he intends to get a bomb, and will use it ? He has even convinced the French government of his hostile intentions. Why bother to do that ?
So, it seems to me to make more sense to believe that he is what he seems to be: a convinced Shia Twelver, who is wrecking Iran&#039;s economy in a rush to get a nuclear weapon. He believes he can afford to wreck the economy because he is not planning to build up a strategic nuclear force, with all the support systems that would require, he is only planning for the Apocalypse, for the events necessary to initiate the appearance of the Hidden Iman, after which it will all be about divine intervention, and the boring economics and organised military stuff will just go hang.
It also seems to me that Ahmadinejad really is in the driving seat of this situation, and that unless some of the more realist Ayatollahs decide that they have had enough and dump him, then it really will come down to who shoots first, Iran or Israel ?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;Somebody in an Iranian missile silo who really does believe in the 12th Iman decides to take things into his own hands&#8221; &#8211; Eggplant</p>
<p>Eggplant<br />
I take it that you have some doubts about the sincerity of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad&#8217;s belief in the Hidden Iman ? I have wondered about that in the past, but I have not heard that he has ever publicly expressed doubts about the Iman or, more importantly, the imminence of his return to earth ? He appears to be believe that he is one of the Iman&#8217;s special helpers, “a nail”, and some have even  suggested that he may be the Iman himself.<br />
This  might all just be an act for the humble poor of Iran, who are accepting hardships and the cost of  the  nuclear programme in the belief that they will receive holy jam tomorrow, but if Ahmadinejad is actually pursuing some carnal schemes of his own, why run down the oil industry and waste so many resources on the nuclear program ? And why do such a good job of convincing Israel that he intends to get a bomb, and will use it ? He has even convinced the French government of his hostile intentions. Why bother to do that ?<br />
So, it seems to me to make more sense to believe that he is what he seems to be: a convinced Shia Twelver, who is wrecking Iran&#8217;s economy in a rush to get a nuclear weapon. He believes he can afford to wreck the economy because he is not planning to build up a strategic nuclear force, with all the support systems that would require, he is only planning for the Apocalypse, for the events necessary to initiate the appearance of the Hidden Iman, after which it will all be about divine intervention, and the boring economics and organised military stuff will just go hang.<br />
It also seems to me that Ahmadinejad really is in the driving seat of this situation, and that unless some of the more realist Ayatollahs decide that they have had enough and dump him, then it really will come down to who shoots first, Iran or Israel ?</p>
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