https://pjmedia.com/richardfernandez/2008/07/22/ex-cathedra/feed/PJ Media is a leading news site covering culture, politics, faith, homeland security, and more. Our reporters and columnists provide original, in-depth analysis from a variety of perspectives.en-usFri, 12 Jun 2026 03:40:34 -0400<![CDATA[Barack Obama&#8217;s response when asked about his assertion that the Surge was bad strategy is a picture perfect example of what Philip Tetlock described as the &#8220;I was almost right defense&#8221;. Tetlock described how analysts who failed to predict the fall of the Soviet Union still argued that if the coup attempts against Yeltsin had been somewhat better organized and succeeded there would still be a USSR. Hence they were almost right but they were betrayed by facts. Jake Tapper at Political Punch has this excerpt from an interview with BHO which almost exactly reproduces that defense:]]>Tue, 22 Jul 2008 18:59:11 -0400<![CDATA[Richard Fernandez]]>https://pjmedia.com/richard-fernandez/2008/07/22/ex-cathedra-n185790